10,200 BTC Sold at a Loss: Did It Save Bitcoin’s Support?

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10,200 <a href="https://jpyeur.com/btc-usd/">BTC</a> Sold at a Loss May Have Kept <a href="https://investment-policy.com/btc-usd/">Bitcoin</a>’s Support Intact

Key Takeaways

  • STH Loss to Binance hits 10,200 BTC, first time since March 27.
  • SMA50 at $75,848 absorbed the drop, channel support intact.
  • LTH Realized Cap 30D reaches $51.2B, second time above $50B since April 14.
  • RSI at 45.29, signal at 57.37: momentum negative, structure holding.

What the on-chain data says the sellers were doing

According to CryptoQuant’s Amr Taha, short-term Bitcoin holders sent over 10,200 BTC to Binance while already at a loss – a level not seen since March 27, 2026. This metric tracks coins transferred to Binance that were already worth less than their purchase price. While it doesn’t guarantee these losses were *actually* sold on Binance, it indicates these holders were likely preparing to sell, not ride out the price drop. In contrast, only 906 BTC from profitable short-term holders went to Binance, showing the flow was overwhelmingly driven by those wanting to cut their losses.

Looking back to March, when Bitcoin was around $66,000, we saw about 8,600 BTC moved from long-term holders to Binance during a period of market stress. Bitcoin then recovered to over $80,000 by May. Currently, we’re seeing 10,200 BTC moving – about 18.6% more than in March – and this is happening at a Bitcoin price around $11,000 higher. This means those selling now bought Bitcoin at a significantly higher average price than those who sold during the March downturn. In short, the current market pressure is greater and is impacting holders who invested at higher prices.

Why the SMA50 and the capitulation are the same event

As a crypto investor, I’m watching Bitcoin closely. The 50-day simple moving average is currently around $75,848. Yesterday, we saw a dip to about $76,050, but it bounced back above $77,000 pretty quickly. Right now, the price is about $1,195 above that moving average, and it’s been solid support since late February – yesterday’s price action confirmed that it’s still holding strong. It hasn’t even been challenged as resistance since I saw the price move above it.

The recent transfer of 10,200 Bitcoin to Binance, even at a loss, doesn’t indicate a market downturn. Instead, it actually helped maintain price stability. These sellers, by offering their Bitcoin, provided the necessary buying power to keep the price around the 50-day Simple Moving Average, preventing it from falling further.

The LTH divergence and what the RSI adds

Taha’s second chart highlights a factor that suggests the price isn’t simply going to keep falling. The change in the Long-Term Holder Realized Cap over the last 30 days has hit around $51.2 billion, exceeding $50 billion for only the second time since mid-April. At the same time, the Short-Term Holder Realized Cap Change is decreasing, indicated by a shrinking red area on the chart. This combination – short-term holders selling at a loss while long-term holders are increasing their realized cap – suggests the market isn’t crashing, but rather shifting. The outcome of this shift will determine future price movement.

The price chart’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) adds to the concerning signals. Currently at 45.29, the RSI is below 50, indicating overall negative momentum for the day. The signal line, at 57.37, is significantly above the RSI – a difference of 12.08 points – suggesting this weakening momentum is recent and continuing. This combination – an RSI of 45.29 with a signal line 12 points higher – suggests that momentum has turned negative, but a clear downward trend hasn’t been established yet. This situation often leads to particularly strong price swings, either up or down.

As an analyst, I’m watching the 200-day Simple Moving Average, currently at $81,300.42. It’s trending downwards and acting as a strong resistance level – we’d need to see consistent buying to even approach it. I’m also keeping a close eye on the 100-day SMA at $72,292.09. If the current support level breaks down, that’s where we’ll likely see the next key test.

Bitcoin’s price movement could signal a major shift if it holds steady. Currently, long-term holders are increasing their Bitcoin holdings while short-term holders are decreasing theirs. This could mean we’re entering a phase of accumulation rather than a sell-off. However, past price patterns aren’t always reliable, so this isn’t guaranteed. The key question now is whether Bitcoin will bounce back from current support levels, confirming that long-term holders are driving the market, or if recent selling is just the beginning of a larger downturn. The available data doesn’t give us a clear answer yet.

This article is for informational purposes only and shouldn’t be considered financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Always do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor before investing.

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2026-05-19 11:10