Steinbeck’s Take: Bitcoin Takes a Tumble, Analysts See a Silver Lining 🤷‍♂️

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Key Takeaways

In a world where the only constant is change, Bitcoin’s latest dip has sparked a flurry of chatter. It’s like watching a farmer’s market on a rainy day-everyone’s talking, but who knows what they’re selling? Despite the 7% drop, some analysts see a glimmer of hope. 🌟

Bitcoin [BTC], the digital gold of our times, has taken a bit of a tumble, falling 7% and breaking below its 2025 trendline support. This has set off a new round of doomsday predictions on Crypto Twitter (CT), but let’s not get too dramatic just yet. 🚨

At the moment, Bitcoin is trading around $115K, a price point that seems to have a lot of people on edge. It’s almost as if the market is holding its breath, waiting for the next big macro event to take center stage. 🎭

But amidst the chaos, there are whispers of a rebound. Some market players, with more optimism than you’d find in a California sunrise, believe that better days are ahead. 🌄

BTC mirrors 2021 cycle top, but…

The analysts at Swissblock, a group known for their keen eye on the market, noted that while the current price action looks eerily similar to the 2021 cycle top, the macroeconomic landscape is a different ball game. 🎱

In 2021, the market was hit hard by quantitative tightening (QT), which sucked the life out of the liquidity pool. But in 2025, the tide might be turning towards quantitative easing (QE) and Fed rate cuts, which could breathe new life into risk assets. 🌊

“In 2025, we’re looking at QE and rate cuts. It’s a tale of technical fragility versus macro tailwinds. Sure, things look shaky in the short term, but the macro liquidity could tip the scales in favor of a rebound.”

Bitcoin trader Bynzantine General and macro analyst Alex Kruger share a similar outlook. The Bynzantine General isn’t sweating the loss of the equilibrium (EQ) and the lack of significant volume, projecting that a larger correction is unlikely. Instead, he sees a potential firm bottom near the range low of $110K. 📈

“BTC lost the EQ, and there’s no big volume coming in yet. But I’m not losing sleep over a larger correction.”

On-chain data backs up this optimistic view. According to CoinGlass, none of the BTC peak indicators have flashed red, suggesting there’s still room for growth despite the late market stage in the 4-year cycle. 🕰️

The short-term holder SOPR (profitability) has dipped below 1, signaling a ‘buy the dip’ opportunity. This indicator has marked past local bottoms and peaks, so it might be worth keeping an eye on. 💸

CryptoQuant

In other words, if BTC takes another dive, it could be a golden opportunity for those looking to buy low and sell high. 🏹

What’s next for BTC?

The options market is telling a story of its own. The 25 Delta Skew has dropped for a 1-day tenor but is steadily rising for a 1-month tenor. This suggests bearish sentiment in the short term but a more positive outlook in the mid-term. 📈📉

This bearish sentiment is understandable given the upcoming July FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. And let’s not forget Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, which could have a significant impact on September rate cuts and BTC’s price action. 🗣️

Whether BTC can hold above $110K remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: the market is a rollercoaster, and the ride’s not over yet. 🎢

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2025-08-19 14:21