Mel Brooks’ Take on Strategy’s Bitcoin Flip-Flop!

by

Well, folks, Strategy has decided to do a little dance with their playbook on when to issue new MSTR shares, buy back stock, or scoop up more Bitcoin. They’re tying these moves to something they call “mNAV,” which sounds like a GPS for financial adventurers. Michael Saylor, the captain of this crypto cruise ship, announced on X (or whatever they’re calling it these days), “Strategy today announced an update to its MSTR Equity ATM Guidance to provide greater flexibility in executing our capital markets strategy.” 🚀

The New Bitcoin Playbook By Saylor

This new playbook is like a treasure map, but instead of X marking the spot, it’s all about where the stock trades versus “mNAV.” This mysterious metric is basically the company’s enterprise value divided by its Bitcoin NAV. And just to keep things interesting, they’ve provided some “implied MSTR price” signposts, which are like the mile markers on your way to the nearest Bitcoin ATM… as of August 17, 2025. 🕰️

When the stock is “Above 4.0x mNAV,” Strategy will be like a kid in a candy store, actively issuing MSTR to buy Bitcoin, with an implied MSTR level of about $1,000. Move down to the “Between 2.5x and 4.0x mNAV” range, and they’ll still be buying Bitcoin, but now they’re a bit more cautious, pegging 2.5x mNAV to about $600 per share. 🤔

But wait, it gets even more exciting! When the stock drops “Below 2.5x mNAV,” they’ll get tactical, first paying off debt, then funding preferred equity dividends, and finally, “when otherwise deemed advantageous to the company,” they might issue more MSTR. If things really hit rock bottom, “Below 1.0x mNAV,” with an implied level near $210, they might even start buying back MSTR using credit. 💸

The language might sound subtle, but it’s a big deal. Up until now, everyone thought Strategy wouldn’t sell new shares to buy more Bitcoin unless the stock was at or above 2.5x mNAV. But Udi Wertheimer, the crypto detective, broke it down: “Up until yesterday: Strategy wasn’t going to sell more MSTR to buy more bitcoin until mNAV hit 2.5x. Starting today: Strategy can sell MSTR to buy more bitcoin.” 🎉

And here’s the kicker: the added clause “when otherwise deemed advantageous” gives management the freedom to issue equity even when the multiple is lower, after they’ve taken care of the bills. It’s like saying, “We’ll do what we think is best, even if it’s not by the book.” 📜

Reactions From X

Skeptics, of course, pounced on this, arguing it lowers the bar for dilution. James Chanos, the founder of Kynikos Associates and a known MSTR short-seller, couldn’t resist a jab: “So not only did MSTR buy just $51M of Bitcoin, due to lack of demand for the preferred ATM’s, but it also looks like Saylor is lowering the 2.5x mNAV floor ‘when otherwise deemed advantageous’ to the Company.” 😏

But supporters, ever the optimists, saw it differently. Matt Cole, CEO of Strive, chimed in, “One of the best signs of a confident and strong leadership team is seeing them pivot and update shareholders instantly when they see a better path for the business.” 🌟

The slide also clarified Strategy’s thoughts on buybacks. If MSTR trades below 1.0x mNAV, they’ll “consider issuing credit to repurchase MSTR.” In plain English, they’ll use leverage to buy back shares when the market prices MSTR near or below its Bitcoin-derived baseline. It’s like saying, “We’ll buy high and borrow low.” 📈📉

The internet, as always, had theories galore. One user, “Teddy Bitcoins,” claimed Strategy plans to “hammer the ATM during the S&P inclusion,” aiming to raise “$10-20 billion” to buy “100,000-200,000 bitcoin.” When asked, “During the inclusion?” Teddy replied, “Correct,” arguing that waiting for inclusion to boost mNAV above 2.5x would limit their buying power. Others weren’t convinced, suggesting an inclusion-driven rally might have pushed MSTR above the old 2.5x trigger anyway. None of these claims are officially confirmed by Strategy, of course. 🧐

So, what’s the big takeaway? Strategy has given itself more room to maneuver, ready to raise equity for Bitcoin when the terms look good, not just when a specific multiple is hit. They’ve also outlined conditions under which they might swing to credit-funded repurchases. It’s a flexible approach that could pay off big-or maybe just big enough to keep the lights on. 🤷‍♂️

At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $115,141. Who knows where it’ll be next week? 🤞

Read More

2025-08-19 18:25