Why Dogecoin Could Revisit Its 13-Month Low Despite a 5% Recovery

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So, here’s Dogecoin, the meme coin that refuses to act its age. After a brief, unimpressive 5% rebound, it made a cameo back to its September 2024 low during the infamous Black Friday sell-off. Isn’t crypto just the most predictable thing?

The broader crypto market is still scraping itself off the floor, but DOGE decided to go a little up. The problem? The recovery might be more of a tiny blip on the radar than a full-blown resurrection. Here’s why.

Dogecoin Recovery: A Flash in the Pan? 

According to the wise folks over at Glassnode, new interest in DOGE is dropping faster than your crypto portfolio after a market crash. Since last Friday, fewer and fewer new addresses are making DOGE transactions.

Just yesterday, 18,251 unique addresses made their debut in the world of DOGE transactions-down a whopping 40% from the 30,534 active addresses during the Black Friday meltdown. Not exactly what you’d call “fresh enthusiasm,” right?

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This drop? It suggests that DOGE’s tiny 5% bounce might be more of a relief rally than anything fueled by real investor demand. Translation: Don’t get too comfy, this ride could end in tears. And by “tears,” I mean a price correction, obviously.

To make matters worse, DOGE’s liveliness is up-meaning long-term holders are looking at this price rebound and thinking, “Time to cash out, baby!” Glassnode confirmed this metric hit 0.708 on October 13. Exciting, right?

The liveliness metric tracks how much of DOGE’s long-dormant supply is being moved. When the number goes up, like it’s doing now, it’s a sign that long-term holders are dumping their coins to take a profit. So yeah, it’s basically a sign that they think this rally is more of a “sell the news” moment.

For DOGE, this means that the recent price move could be short-lived. Looks like the bears are still in charge. Prepare for a possible correction.

Is $0.095 on the Horizon Again? 

On the daily chart, DOGE is under pressure, still trailing below its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Currently, that EMA serves as a big ol’ barrier at $0.249, while DOGE is hanging out at $0.199. Classic.

The 20-day EMA, if you’re curious, measures an asset’s average price over the past 20 sessions, giving more weight to the most recent data. When the price hangs below that line, it’s a signal that the bears are in control. Aka, things aren’t looking too hot for DOGE right now.

Without a sudden burst of buyer interest or a crypto miracle (or, you know, actual network activity), DOGE is likely heading for a pit stop at its next support level around $0.167.

If it can’t hold that line, well, prepare for the worst: it could dip down to its 13-month low of $0.095, which is where it landed during the last major market crash. Good times.

But hey, if sentiment turns around, and DOGE magically breaks through the $0.224 mark, all bets are off. It could ride a bullish wave to $0.264. Let’s see if that actually happens. Crypto, am I right?

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2025-10-14 13:13