Bitcoin’s Fourth Dance: Will the Fickle Flock Flee? 🕺💸

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Ah, Bitcoin, that capricious darling of the digital realm, has once again dipped its toes into the murky waters of the short-term holder’s cost basis. 🌊 Like a weary traveler returning to a familiar inn, it seeks solace in a level that has, thus far, offered a modicum of support. But how long can this fragile embrace last? 🤔

The Fourth Retest: A Ballet of Greed and Fear

As the astute Maartunn, a sage of the CryptoQuant community, observes on the modern oracle known as X, Bitcoin may be pirouetting through the fourth act of the short-term holder (STH) Realized Price cycle. 🩰 This “Realized Price,” a metric as intricate as a Chekhovian plot, measures the average cost basis of the investors on the BTC network. When it looms above the spot price, the market weeps in unison, burdened by net unrealized losses. Yet, when it dips below, the average holder basks in the glow of profit. 🤑

But let us narrow our gaze to the STHs, those fickle souls who acquired their coins within the past 155 days. This lot, prone to panic like a nervous debutante at her first ball, is the focus of our tale. Their Realized Price, a lifeline or a noose, depending on the day, has been retested by Bitcoin with the persistence of a spurned lover. 💔

Behold, the chart Maartunn hath shared, a visual symphony of trends over the past months:

As one can discern, Bitcoin has flirted with the STH Realized Price like a suitor with a wandering eye, each retest a test of faith. The reason this level holds? Ah, the whims of investor psychology, as predictable as a Chekhovian character’s despair. 😏

Maartunn, ever the analyst, dissects the STH cycle into five acts, a tragicomedy of bullish phases. Acts one through three feature our protagonists buying with gusto, viewing retraces to their cost basis as opportunities to double down. But by the fourth act, exhaustion sets in, and the once-eager accumulators may falter, leaving the cryptocurrency’s support as fragile as a glass of vodka in a Russian winter. 🥃❄️

And here we stand, at the precipice of the fourth retest, Bitcoin’s value hovering near the STH Realized Price like a leaf in the wind. Will this be the act where the fickle flock flees, turning support into resistance? Or will they, in a final burst of optimism, cling to their break-even level like a lifeline? 🌪️

BTC Price: A Rollercoaster of Emotion

Earlier today, Bitcoin plummeted to $110,000, only to rebound to $113,000 with the resilience of a Chekhovian protagonist facing existential dread. A small victory, perhaps, but in this theater of volatility, every act counts. 🎢

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2025-10-15 11:34