BTC Plunge! 📉 Is This The Bottom?

by

A Most Peculiar State of Affairs:

  • Good heavens! The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium has turned…red! A most unsettling color, wouldn’t you agree? As BTC dipped below the rather impressive sum of $104,000, naturally. 🙄

  • Bitcoin’s RSI has reached a nadir not seen since April. A bottom, they say? Hmph. We shall see, we shall see.

  • That 200-day EMA, a seemingly sturdy support, is now being eyed with suspicion as BTC teeters on the brink of… capitulation! Such drama! 🎭

Bitcoin (BTC), that digital phantom, has continued its descent, slipping to a paltry $103,500. A veritable cascade of woes has befallen the onchain market sentiment. The Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index, a contrivance of modern finance, has dared to display a most unbecoming crimson hue on the hourly chart-a sight not witnessed for weeks! Can you imagine the consternation?

Earlier in the week, BTC, in a moment of optimistic folly, attempted to find respite around $110,000, bolstered by the steady and frankly, rather predictable, demand from American investors. The Coinbase premium even swelled, briefly, to 0.18 – a figure not seen since March of 2024! A fleeting moment of confidence, quickly dashed, as these things often are.

However, alas, the price proving stubbornly unwilling to remain above $110,000, that confidence dissolved like sugar in tea. The hourly premium has regrettably turned negative, though the daily reading, clinging to a sliver of positivity, suggests that the long-term American fondness for it hasn’t completely evaporated… yet. But it is, shall we say, feeling a bit under the weather. 🤧

And to compound our troubles, Bitcoin’s taker sell volume has surged above $4 billion! A veritable tempest of sell orders! This coincided with BTC being unceremoniously rejected near the short-term holder (STH) realized price – a key level which, naturally, now serves as a rather mocking resistance. A most inconvenient development.

Historically, this level marks the average expense for recent purchasers, so a sustained disregard for it could hasten a most unwelcome descent toward $100,000. A frightening thought, truly.

Bitcoin Attempts to Recapture Past Glories (Or Perhaps Just Look Like It)

BTC’s current predicament bears a striking, almost uncanny, resemblance to the March-April doldrums. Sharp, momentary plunges, clearing out liquidity built up over thirty days before a tepid recovery began. A pattern emerging, it seems. One suspects BTC may test the $100,000 range again, without necessarily disrupting the broader optimistic narrative-unless, of course, it plunges decisively beneath that threshold. A troubling possibility.

The relative strength index, or RSI (a most modern invention!), has slumped to its lowest point, echoing April’s lamentable figure of 34. A time of woe, certainly, but one from which BTC eventually, reluctantly, recovered.

A technical signal to observe is the 200-day exponential moving average (EMAs), held by BTC for nearly six months. In the preceding cycle, it maintained this poise from October 2024 to March 2024 before briefly abandoning it during a period of consolidation. This time, the trendline has, so far, held – from April to October 2025. But, alas, the winds may shift.

Should BTC continue to tread the path of past tribulations, the market may find itself in a period of… consolidation. A prolonged period of waiting – lasting weeks, perhaps. During the first quarter, the recovery extended a rather tedious 45-55 days before a true bottom was eventually established in late April. Applying this same timeline, a similarly gradual recovery might not materialize until late November or early December. A long wait indeed!

A crypto trader, one Dentoshi by name, echoed these somber sentiments, stating:

“$BTC has consistently bottomed around the 3-day 100 EMA this bull run-but it’s taken 45-96 days to do so.”

Read More

2025-10-18 07:22