In the past seven days, Bitcoin’s price has plummeted from the lofty heights of $115,000 to the less glamorous $105,000, a decline so dramatic it would make a Victorian dowager count her shillings twice before crossing the street. According to the esteemed Burak Kesmeci, a man of such acumen that he could probably calculate the odds of a tea-cozy becoming prime minister, seven on-chain developments have emerged during this fiscal fiasco-each a clue in the grand mystery of market psychology, or as one might call it, “the art of panicking with precision.”
The Market’s Mood: A Symphony of Despair and Subtle Hope
On the 18th of October, Mr. Kesmeci took to X (formerly Twitter) to regale us with a series of on-chain signals so profound they could make a stoic Greek philosopher weep into his ouzo. The Fear and Greed Index, that most melodramatic of financial barometers, has plunged into the “extreme fear” territory, a place where even the most bullish investor might pause to reconsider their life choices. Yet, as Mr. Kesmeci astutely observes, such moments of collective dread are often the prelude to a market bottom, not unlike a thunderstorm preceding a particularly enthusiastic sale at Harrods.
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, a figure so unassuming it could easily be mistaken for the price of a decent cup of Earl Grey, has dipped below 50%, transforming the once-rosy sentiment into a shade of gloom reminiscent of a rainy day in the Lake District. Meanwhile, in the derivatives market, funding rates have turned negative, a development so disconcerting it’s as if the futures market itself has decided to join the chorus of despair.
MicroStrategy (MSTR), that stalwart of crypto treasuries, has seen its shares fall below $300, a price point so modest it could be mistaken for the cost of a single teacup. Yet, in a move both quixotic and oddly comforting, the company has added 220 BTC to its holdings, now boasting a total of 640,251 BTC-a figure so large it could buy every scone in the United Kingdom and still have enough left for a decent chandelier.
The Advanced NVT Signal, a metric so obscure it might as well be written in hieroglyphics, has fallen below -0.5 standard deviations, a level so historically oversold it makes a bargain basement look like a luxury boutique. The Active Address Sentiment Indicator (AASI), meanwhile, suggests Bitcoin’s price has dropped disproportionately to network activity, a situation akin to a man wearing a top hat in a storm-uncomfortable, but perhaps not without its own peculiar charm.
When all these signals are considered together, one might conclude that Bitcoin is currently inhabiting a realm of extreme fear and oversold conditions. Yet, as Mr. Kesmeci hints with the subtlety of a brick through a window, the local bottom may be forming. In other words, it’s the kind of market where even the most jaded investor might consider buying the dip-or at least a very strong cup of coffee.
A Price Overview for the Persevering
At the time of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $106,970, having declined a mere 0.29% in the last 24 hours-a drop so slight it could be attributed to a particularly heavy lunch. The monthly chart, however, tells a darker tale, with an 8.32% loss that would make even the most optimistic “Uptober” enthusiast reconsider their life choices. Yet, according to Coincodex analysts, a rebound is nigh, with a projected price target of $124,172 in five days-a figure so ambitious it could only be achieved by a dragon or a particularly enterprising hedge fund manager.
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2025-10-19 14:12