Opinion vs. Kalshi & Polymarket: The Great Crypto Gamble 🎰💥

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The YZi Labs-backed prediction market platform ‘Opinion’ has ascended to the zenith of trading volume, eclipsing its erstwhile competitors like Kalshi and Polymarket. On October 13, Opinion accounted for 48.6% of total market activity while Kalshi followed with a 25.8% share, a spectacle as mesmerizing as a peacock’s tail in a cage of tickers.

Polymarket, previously the market leader, held 23.2%. Smaller platforms like Myriad and Limitless make up only tiny portions, at 1.8% and 0.6%, respectively-a flicker of light in the shadow of a gilded casino.

Abhi, the founder of AP Collective, noted that the volume is most probably derived through wash-trading, raising questions whether the numbers truly reflect real trading activity. A dance of shadows, perhaps, orchestrated by a puppeteer with a penchant for theatrics.

cz’s prediction market now does more volume than kalshi and polymarket

– Abhi | AP Collective (@0xAbhiP) November 2, 2025

Opinion, supported by Binance founder Changpend Zhao’s YZi Labs, is gaining attention as interest in prediction markets grows. These platforms let people “buy and sell” shares that represent what might happen in the future-a modern-day oracle, albeit one with a penchant for volatility. While Polymarket and Kalshi have been leading this landscape, Opinion’s rapid rise has raised questions whether its rise is sustainable or even real at all. A mirage, perhaps, or a masquerade ball in the desert of speculation.

Rapid Growth and Activity Spikes

The national volume charts for Opinion also show a similar pattern. On peak days, daily trading topped $200 million, and total trading approached $500 million by November 3. Besides higher volumes, the amount of open interest-money tied up in active trades-also rose sharply. Platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Opinion saw more activity, highlighting growing competition in the market. A chess game where the pieces are both players and pawns.

Polymarket and Kalshi’s Dominating Position

Polymarket used to dominate open interest, often holding over 70% of active trades. But in 2025, Kalshi gradually gained ground, bringing its shares closer to even. At the same time, smaller platforms like Myriad, Limitless, and Opinion began seeing more activity, showing that the market is becoming more diverse and competitive. A tango of titans, with the underdogs waltzing in the background.

Even though Opinion appears to be leading, many in the industry remain cautious. DeFi Warhol pointed out on X that its trading patterns looked unusual: “Decreasing transactions while increasing volume > 10x volume volatility day over day > Inorganic fee structure. It seems like obvious volume manipulation to me.” A siren song, perhaps, luring the unwary into a gilded cage of algorithmic betting.

Does the volume for @opinionlabsxyz seem organic to you?

> Decreasing transactions while increasing volume
> 10x volume volatility day over day
> Inorganic fee structure

It seems like obvious volume manipulation to me, similar to @Aster_DEX.

Why is nobody talking about it?

– DeFi Warhol (@Defi_Warhol) November 2, 2025

Anatoli Kopadze also shared his doubts about the hype: “I don’t think this hype will last long. But a real reputation like Polymarket’s… will live on for a long time.” A prophecy, perhaps, or a warning etched in the sands of digital ephemera.

The Increasing Attention on Prediction Markets

Prediction markets show what large groups of people think will happen. When many users trade on outcomes, the resulting prices often reflect real probabilities. These platforms reveal patterns in public sentiment and highlight which events the crowd views as likely or unlikely. A collective unconscious, dressed in the garb of financial instruments.

Recent activity in the sector shows rising engagement, especially in crypto and DeFi circles. New platforms like Opinion are attracting attention, but spikes in volume raise questions about how genuine the activity is. A masquerade, perhaps, where the masks are made of glass and the faces behind them are ever-shifting.

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2025-11-03 17:58