Crypto’s Altseason: Dead in 2026? (Spoiler: Probably)

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The typical altcoin rally is about as reliable as a toddler’s promise to clean their room. But hey, at least it’s not a promise. 🐍

“Retail investors expecting a rising tide to lift all boats will be disappointed,” Ko told CryptoMoon. “We predict no traditional altseason; instead, liquidity will be ruthlessly selective, flowing only to blue-chip survivors with real adoption.” Let’s be honest, that’s just a fancy way of saying “only the cool kids get invited to the party.” 🎉

Ko anticipated “modest global liquidity tailwinds in 2026,” tempered by divergent central bank policies, but added that Bitcoin’s historical sensitivity to the M2 money supply growth “has softened since the 2024 ETF launches, with correlation diminishing.” Like a relationship that’s gone from passionate to “we’re just friends.” 💔

He added that the company’s “base case sees Bitcoin targeting $180,000 by 2026.” Let’s just say, if you’re planning a vacation, start saving now. 🏖️

However, not all analysts agree, with veteran analyst Peter Brandt predicting another long, drawn-out bear market. Because nothing says “excitement” like waiting for a market to crash again. 🐍

Bitcoin to next peak in 2029

Brandt, a veteran futures trader, said on Tuesday that in 15 years, Bitcoin has experienced five parabolic advances on a logarithmic scale followed by at least 80% declines, but the “current cycle is not done yet.” Because why have a peak in 2026 when you can wait until 2029? 🗓️

However, when asked about the bottom of this cycle, he “projected the next bull market high to occur in September 2029.” The four-year cycle theory is like a bad breakup-never really goes away. 🌀

The prediction would line up perfectly with the four-year cycle theory and the peak coming a year after the halving event, which is due around April 2028. However, an 80% decline as seen in previous cycles could send BTC crashing back to $25,000 before that happens. Because nothing says “optimism” like a 80% drop. 🚀

Is the four-year cycle dead?

Historically, the fourth quarter of the year has often been one of Bitcoin’s strongest periods. Eight of the past 12 fourth quarters have seen Bitcoin’s biggest quarterly gains, and only one of them was a single-digit gain, according to Coinglass. Like a bad habit you can’t quit. 🎯

However, Bitcoin is down more than 22% over the current quarter, marking its second-worst fourth quarter in history so far. Because nothing says “recovery” like a 22% drop. 📉

Milk Road said on Monday that “this usually means the market has flushed a lot of excess risk and weak positioning.” So, basically, the market is doing a detox. 🧼

“So for 2026, it doesn’t automatically guarantee upside, but historically, cycles that finish with a heavy reset tend to have better conditions to build strength.” Like a broken leg that finally heals. 🦴

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around $88,000, down 30% from its October all-time high. Let’s just say, if you’re planning a vacation, start saving now. 🏖️

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2025-12-23 09:05