Bitcoin’s 70% Takeover: A New Era or a Mirage?

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While the market, ever the fickle lover, fixates on weekly candle closes and ETF inflows, ARK Invest’s “Big Ideas 2026” report suggests we are no longer in its early phase, but entering a major structural shift-though one might argue it’s merely the same old song, played on a different instrument.

According to the report, Cathie Wood’s latest outlook goes beyond simple growth expectations. One might wonder, is this not the same as every other report? Yet, here we are, clinging to the hope that the future is a clean slate.

ARK projected that the total value of digital assets could reach $28 trillion by 2030, with Bitcoin playing the central role. A role it has played since the invention of the wheel, or at least since the first Bitcoin transaction.

In fact, the firm believes Bitcoin will account for around 70% of the overall market, giving it a potential valuation of $16 trillion. A number so large, it could double as a mortgage for a moon colony.

How did 2025 work in favour of Bitcoin?

The year 2025 ended the idea that Bitcoin [BTC] is mainly a speculative asset and introduced what ARK calls the “Strategic Reserve era.” A term that sounds less like a financial strategy and more like a Russian novel’s subplot.

Two key political events changed how Bitcoin’s risk was viewed. One might say the risk was always there, but now it’s been rebranded as “strategic.”

After U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, regulatory uncertainty eased, and markets quickly adjusted. A feat akin to a magician pulling a rabbit from a hat, but with more paperwork.

This shift became clearer in March 2025, when an executive order signaled that the U.S. government was willing to treat Bitcoin as a national treasury asset. And…that decision triggered a wider response. One might imagine the government’s reaction as a mix of cautious optimism and a desire to keep up with the Joneses.

Within the U.S., states began competing to build their own Bitcoin reserves, with Texas and various others launching a state-level strategic reserve by the end of 2025. A race to the top, where the prize is a digital asset that may or may not be worth the paper it’s printed on.

Outside the U.S., Japan’s Metaplanet built a Bitcoin treasury worth $5.4 billion, showing that interest in Bitcoin as a long-term store of value is spreading globally, not just in Western markets. A global trend, indeed, as if the rest of the world had nothing better to do than hoard digital tokens.

The ETF space speaks volumes

Additionally, in 2025, Bitcoin held by ETFs grew by 19.7%, reaching 1.29 million BTC. A number so precise, it suggests someone spent hours counting each coin.

Even more notable, Bitcoin held by public companies jumped 73%, reaching 1.09 million BTC. One might wonder if these companies are investing in Bitcoin or simply trying to appear trendy.

Adding further, the report noted, “As a result, the percent of bitcoin outstanding held by ETFs and public companies increased from 8.7% to 12%.” A rise so modest, it could be mistaken for a typo.

Interestingly, Bitcoin also stood out in terms of risk and returns. In 2025, its risk-adjusted performance was better than Ethereum [ETH], Solana [SOL], and the broader CoinDesk 10 index. A triumph, or perhaps a case of “the enemy of my enemy is my friend.”

This supports ARK’s view that Bitcoin is becoming a safe-haven asset for institutions, rather than just a volatile investment. A safe haven, one might say, for those who enjoy the thrill of uncertainty.

Current market dynamics

As per CoinMarketCap data, Bitcoin was trading around $89,912, down just 0.75% in the last 24 hours. Yet, despite this, the Bitcoin dominance chart stood close to 59.7% at press time. A statistic that could be interpreted as either a sign of strength or a warning that the market is too afraid to move.

So, rather than being a warning sign, this level of dominance is considered healthy. A term that, in the context of finance, often means “we’re all just pretending to know what’s happening.”

It showed that money is not leaving crypto, but instead moving toward the asset investors see as the most secure. A paradox, as the most secure asset is often the one that changes hands the most.

Ark’s take on stablecoins and RWAs

Additionally, ARK’s report also talked about how the GENIUS Act gave clear legal support to stablecoins, which helped drive rapid growth. A law so clear, it could be read by a blind man with a magnifying glass.

By December 2025, stablecoin transaction volume reached $3.5 trillion. A figure that would make even the most seasoned economist raise an eyebrow.

The report added, “Circle’s stablecoin, USDC, dominated adjusted transaction volume with ~60% share, followed by Tether’s USDT’s ~35%.” A duopoly that makes one wonder if the market is a two-headed beast.

At the same time, the total value of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) also tripled to $18.9 billion, and ARK believes this area alone could grow to $11 trillion by 2030. A prediction so bold, it would make a fortune-teller blush.

This contradicts Wood’s November 2025 view, when she lowered her most bullish Bitcoin price target for 2030 from $1.5 million to $1.2 million. A revision that suggests even the most optimistic forecasts are subject to the whims of the market.

Final Thoughts

  • Volatility now masks structural strengthening rather than systemic fragility. A comforting thought, if one ignores the fact that structural strengthening is often just a fancy way of saying “we’re all just hoping for the best.”
  • Political clarity in 2025 fundamentally altered Bitcoin’s risk profile, accelerating its adoption as a strategic reserve asset. A strategic reserve, one might say, for those who prefer their investments to be as unpredictable as a Russian novel.

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2026-01-22 19:40