Markets
What to know (because who doesn’t want to be in the loop?):
- The 100-week moving average at $87,145 is like your grandma with a shotgun-main line of defense and ready to fire!
- If we drop below this, the U.S. spot bitcoin ETF buyers are holding their breath at $84,099, hoping for a miracle during this market chaos.
- A sustained dip below $80,000? Buckle up! We might just be taking a nostalgic trip back to that April 2025 low of $76,000. Ah, memories!
Bitcoin took a nosedive to $86,000 when CME futures opened on Sunday after their weekend nap. It’s since managed to crawl back a smidge, but let’s face it, the market is still firmly in its downward dog pose.
This initial plummet left us with a gaping pricing hole as high as $89,265. A CME gap forms when bitcoin’s spot price is like that kid who runs off to play while CME futures are snoozing. Historically, bitcoin has a knack for revisiting these gaps, like an old friend you just can’t shake off.
Bitcoin last hit its all-time high on Oct. 6-111 days ago, which feels like forever in crypto years-and is now down approximately 30% from that peak. It’s like watching your favorite show get renewed, only to realize it’s gone downhill fast.
Dropping below $80,000 may just send us scurrying back to those April 2025 levels when bitcoin flirted with a low of $76,000 during Trump’s tariff tantrum. Who needs reality TV when we have this drama?
For now, the 100-week moving average is like the last slice of pizza at a party-everyone’s fighting to keep it together at $87,145. Since hitting a local bottom on Nov. 21 at $80,000, it’s hung on like a cat on a tree branch.
Bitcoin has already slipped under the 50-day moving average of just over $90,000. This indicator is like that friend who tells you which way the wind is blowing-only sometimes they’re wrong!
Below current levels, several notable support zones emerge. The Difficulty Regression Model, estimating bitcoin’s average production cost, is hanging around $89,300. Just remember, commodities often like to lounge around or dip below their production cost during bear markets. It’s like a hipster only buying vintage clothing!
Further down, our U.S. spot bitcoin ETF buyers are at an aggregate cost basis of $84,099. They’ve been acting as emotional support for months. Onchain data shows the 2024 average exchange withdrawal price, effectively the cost basis of 2024 buyers, at $82,713. Talk about a rollercoaster of emotions!
Finally, the True Market Mean Price, calculated using Investor Cap divided by Active Supply, is just above $80,000. It lines up nicely with the November low, making it a potential mean-reversion level. Let’s hope it doesn’t turn into the meanest level!
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2026-01-26 14:08