Gold’s Madness: $20,000 or Bust? The World’s Wager on Shiny Delusions

Ah, the golden idol of our age! How it tumbles, how it soars, and yet, the fools-forgive me, the traders-cling to their dreams of twenty thousand dollars per ounce, as if the very heavens would rain bullion upon them. A plunge, a crash, a fall from grace-and still, they bet, they hope, they pray. Is it faith? Or merely the madness of a world gone mad?

In this theater of the absurd, the market is a stage, and the players are driven by forces beyond their comprehension: macroeconomic winds, the whispers of geopolitical chaos, and the fickle whims of central banks. What a spectacle! What a farce!

The Gamblers’ Folly: Betting on the Sun

Behold, the wise men of the market-or so they claim-have amassed some 11,000 contracts, a testament to their unshakable belief in gold’s ascent to the heavens. Walter Bloomberg, that modern-day soothsayer, declares with a straight face, “Gold $20,000 calls surge despite record selloff. Deep out-of-the-money bullish bets on gold are building even after a historic correction…” And yet, the price lingers near $5,000, a mere mortal sum. What hubris! What folly!

“Gold $20,000 calls surge despite record selloff. Deep out-of-the-money bullish bets on gold are building even after a historic correction… The position has since grown to roughly 11,000 contracts, even with prices consolidating near $5,000,” commented Walter Bloomberg, as if the gods of finance would heed his words.

This optimism, my dear reader, is not merely blind-it is willfully so. For these trades are but low-cost, high-upside wagers, the financial equivalent of betting on the sun to rise in the west. For gold to triple by December, a cataclysm must occur-a macroeconomic earthquake, a geopolitical tsunami. And yet, they bet. Ah, the human condition!

But mark my words, these bets are not without consequence. They stir the market, push implied volatility higher, and signal a thirst for the extreme. It is as if the traders, in their desperation, are crying out, “Give us more! More risk, more uncertainty, more chaos!”

And yet, some analysts-those eternal optimists-insist that gold’s broader trajectory remains intact. Michael van de Poppe, a macro analyst of no small repute, proclaims, “If you start zooming out on the macroeconomic factors, then it’s quite clear that the markets of Gold haven’t peaked at all… As a matter of fact, I think we are [in a larger bull market]. That’s why I’m buying Gold in the next 30-50% dip.” Ah, the confidence of youth! The arrogance of knowledge!

“If you start zooming out on the macroeconomic factors, then it’s quite clear that the markets of Gold haven’t peaked at all. Yes, they can peak in the short term and have a 1-2 year consolidation period, but that doesn’t mean we aren’t in a larger bull market in Gold. As a matter of fact, I think we are. That’s why I’m buying Gold in the next 30-50% dip,” expressed Macro analyst Michael van de Poppe, with the certainty of a man who has never been wrong.

The Bull and the Bear: A Dance of Shadows

But let us not forget the near-term volatility, that ever-present specter haunting the markets. Ole Hansen, a commodities strategist of note, observes that gold rebounded above $5,000 after softer US inflation data pushed bond yields lower and revived expectations for interest-rate cuts. Ah, the ebb and flow of the market, a dance of shadows and light!

#Gold rallied back above USD 5,000 on Friday, recovering from a USD 160 slide the previous day after a softer US CPI print pushed bond yields lower and lifted rate-cut expectations. China – a key engine behind the month-long rally in precious metals and selected industrial metals…

– Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) February 16, 2026

And so, while the macro tailwinds blow, the trading activity and liquidity conditions, particularly in China, wield their influence. It is a delicate balance, a precarious tightrope walk between hope and despair.

A Global Frenzy: The Metals Madness

But gold is not alone in its madness. Across the metals markets, a frenzy has taken hold. Trading volumes in Chinese aluminum, copper, nickel, and tin futures have soared to unprecedented heights, driven by the fevered dreams of retail investors. The Kobeissi Letter reports, “Metals trading activity in China is skyrocketing… Combined trading volume in aluminium, copper, nickel, and tin futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange jumped +86% MoM in January, to 78 million lots, the most in at least a year.” What a spectacle! What a circus!

Exchanges, in their wisdom, have tightened margin requirements and trading rules to curb this excess. But can they stem the tide? Or is this but the prelude to a greater catastrophe?

And let us not forget the central banks, those silent arbiters of fate. Steve Hanke, an economist of no small repute, notes that China has been shifting from US Treasuries to gold reserves, a move interpreted as a reduction in reliance on dollar-denominated assets. “BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS,” he declares, with the gravitas of a prophet.

Yet, not all share this optimism. Mike McGlone, a commodity strategist of sober mind, cautions that the metals sector may be overheating, drawing parallels to previous peaks where extreme positioning preceded corrections. “Metals Are Too Hot If Commodities Are a Guide,” he warns, as if the market were a furnace ready to explode.

And so, my dear reader, we stand at the precipice. Will gold soar to $20,000, or will it crash and burn? Will the traders’ dreams be realized, or will they awaken to a nightmare? Only time will tell. But one thing is certain: in this theater of the absurd, we are all but players in a grand, cosmic farce.

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2026-02-17 09:26