Nasdaq-100’s 100-Day Slump: History Hints at Imminent Recovery

by

Nasdaq-100 Hits 100 Days Below Record High: Here’s What History Says Happens Next

Despite a roughly 6.6% decline this year, the Nasdaq-100 is showing signs that it could soon start to bounce back.

The Kobeissi Letter pointed out that the market index has been lower than its record high for 100 days in a row – the longest period of decline since 2023.

The Nasdaq-100 is still relatively close to its highest point, within 10%, which has only happened six times since 1985. Historically, the market has tended to perform well after such occurrences, suggesting a positive outlook.

Historically, after similar dips, the index has typically recovered within a month, showing gains 80% of the time with an average increase of about 1.1%. Two months after those dips, it’s performed similarly well, with positive returns in 80% of cases and an average gain of 2.3%.

In every instance, the index showed improvement after one year, with an average increase of 17%.

“History suggests technology stocks are set to recover soon,” the post read.

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens

Pension Fund Inflows and Earnings Support

I saw a report from The Kobeissi Letter saying Goldman Sachs thinks US pension funds are on track to buy a massive $13.8 billion worth of stocks before the end of the quarter. That’s a huge amount – it’s more than they’ve bought in almost any month for the last three years, and even beats out 93% of months going all the way back to 2000. It could be a significant boost for the market.

Pension funds have typically sold around $1.8 billion worth of stocks each month since the year 2000. However, they bought a record $80.6 billion worth of stocks in a single month during 2020, at the height of the pandemic.

Analysts predict a shift in investment strategy for US pension funds. Following recent stock market drops, they’re planning to move money from bonds into stocks to keep their investment targets on track. This will involve selling bonds to free up funds for the stock purchases, which should lead to a significant increase in money flowing into the stock market.

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, believes there’s a solid reason to be optimistic. He points out that the ‘Magnificent 7′ stocks – a large part of the overall market value – are still showing healthy profit growth, which supports their current valuations.

As a researcher, I’ve been closely watching the performance of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech stocks. They’ve continued to show solid earnings growth, and looking at the data, it seems they may have corrected enough for now. The price index has shifted significantly – it’s moved from being aligned with earnings expectations for the third year out, to now matching expectations for the next 12 months.

— Jurrien Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) March 26, 2026

Several factors are now in place that could cause the market to rise, but it’s still uncertain if these conditions will lead to a lasting recovery.

Read More

2026-03-27 08:21