Ethereum’s 6-Month Curse: Will March Break the Streak or Extend the Pain?

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<a href="https://pricpr.com/eth-usd/">Ethereum</a> Is Fighting to Break a 6-Month Curse, But Things Can Go Wrong

Ethereum (ETH) is currently up about 2.93% for March, marking its first monthly gain since August 2025. Before this, the price had fallen for six straight months – from September to February – losing more than half of its value.

As March nears its end, it’s uncertain if Ethereum will maintain its recent gains, or if negative pressures will cause the month to end with losses, marking a seventh consecutive month of decline.

March Started Strong, but the Second Half Tells a Different Story

As I reviewed the monthly returns, the data revealed a significant downturn. We saw a drop of 5.59% in September 2025, followed by a further decline of 7.15% in October. November was particularly bad, with a substantial 22.2% loss. While December showed a small recovery, slipping only 0.83%, January 2026 continued the negative trend with a 17.7% loss, and February closed with another significant decrease of 19.6%.

While March saw an overall increase of 2.93%, that figure doesn’t tell the whole story, as the latter half of the month was different.

Looking at the 4-hour price chart, Ethereum has been moving downwards within a defined channel since March 16th, after reaching a high of $2,380. This downward trend has caused the price to fall to as low as $1,970, which is about an 18% drop from its peak in mid-March. Currently, Ethereum is trading around $2,020, still within this channel and continuing to move lower.

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Honestly, March started off amazing for my crypto portfolio – I was seeing some really solid gains. But lately, those gains have been slowly disappearing. It feels like the price is getting squeezed, and how things play out in the rest of the month will likely decide if this positive run continues, or if we’re about to see a downturn.

Two conviction-based metrics suggest the bears are gaining ground heading into the month’s close.

Whales Are Dropping and Dip Buyers Are Fading

Large Ethereum holders (excluding those belonging to exchanges) recently held 122.91 million ETH. Over the past two days, that amount has decreased by about 180,000 ETH, bringing the total to 122.73 million. This drop in holdings is happening as Ethereum’s price falls to a lower level within its recent trading range, which is a potentially worrying sign.

The Money Flow Index (MFI), which measures buying pressure by considering trading volume, is raising some concerns. Although the price of Ethereum increased between March 8th and March 28th, the MFI actually decreased during that same period, suggesting weakening momentum.

The recent bearish divergence indicates that buying during price drops has become less strong throughout March, despite the overall price still increasing. With each dip, fewer buyers stepped in. This combination of large investors selling and decreasing interest from dip buyers suggests the price may not have much support and could fall further.

If the overall market keeps declining, these indicators suggest Ethereum might not be able to maintain the price increases it saw in March.

Ethereum Price Forecast and the $1,970 Zone

The key level is $1,972 (the $1,970 zone). It has held as support since early March.

As a researcher tracking Ethereum’s price, I’m watching closely to see if it stays above $1,970. If the price closes below that level for four consecutive hours, it would signal a break through a key support area – specifically, the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. This could then lead to further downward movement, potentially bringing the price closer to the lower end of the current falling channel.

If the price falls below $1,910 and then $1,830, it would signal a downward trend. A drop below $1,830 would confirm this, potentially leading to a roughly 10% decrease, targeting the $1,650 level. However, such a significant drop isn’t expected to happen immediately.

Ethereum needs to rise above $2,050 to ease some current selling pressure. If it can do that, the next key price level to watch would be around $2,110, which will show if the price can continue to climb.

Ethereum is currently around $1,970, and whether it continues to rise for its first positive month in seven months, or falls to around $1,650, depends on whether it can hold above this level.

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2026-03-29 00:07