When Bitcoin fell from its 2025 pomp, it didn’t just misplace its keys; it lost its sense of humor, its swagger, and probably the caffeine too. The latest downward swoon has transformed the bear market into a long, moody relationship, and BTC’s supply in the red is swelling like a drama queen at curtain call.
Profit Supply On Bitcoin Contracts To Multi-Year Lows
Sure, the price managed a cheeky return to the $72,000 mark for a hot second-congratulations, champagne for the very small win-but the mood remains more depressing than a Monday morning after a disastrous haircut. The extended haze of negative price action has started to rewrite market dynamics, with supply in the loss zone climbing faster than a plot twist in a binge-worthy crime drama.
With Bitcoin’s price taking another sharp tumble, Darkfost, a market oracle (or at least someone who writes long emails about charts) and CryptoQuant’s verified author, revealed that profit supply has collapsed, flirting with levels last seen in the last bear market. Translation: more holders are either at breakeven or nursing unrealized losses, like a doomed rom-com with bad timing and worse dialogue.
Darkfost stated that nearly 1 BTC out of 2 is held at a loss as of Thursday. To be precise, the share of Bitcoin supply still in profit is estimated at around 59%, a level that almost echoes the last bear market. Historically, the average sits nearer 75% in profit. So yes, the current cycle is decidedly below the “fashionable” level.
These levels tend to trigger capitulation or consolidation, but they also signal a dip in market confidence and a dwindling urge to sell. It might feel counterintuitive to some crypto players, but the expert insists that the market needs investors to cash in profits to keep the momentum marching forward-like fuel to keep a very dramatic car chase going.
However, the key level to watch is 50%, which could flip the market structure on its head, since bear markets have often bottomed around this zone. Given the state of play, this metric should be watched closely, because it helps assess when losses or profits become significant across the market, enabling a relatively straightforward game plan.
Specifically, the strategy involves accumulating when losses hit extreme levels, putting some investors ahead of the pack. It also helps manage exposure when profits approach 100%. As profit margins shrink across the network, the current vibe is more accumulation than selling-like stocking up on chocolates during a heartbreak montage.
BTC Bear Market Is Still Active
As the bear-bellyaching debate about a bottom heats up, a crypto analyst offers his take: Bitcoin has yet to hit a proper bottom. The analysis is backed by signals from the BTC Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Z-Score. While some whispered that $60,000 was the bottom, the expert has waved off that narrative with a dramatic flourish.
According to the expert, the MVRV has not yet fallen into the green bottoming zone, which means the bear market is still very much in residence. In terms of timing, the analyst predictions clock in at roughly six more months in bear territory. So, yes, another major drop for BTC is teased, expected, and probably overdue.
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2026-04-11 02:43