Bitcoin’s SMA Tango: Will It Be a Triple Top or a Moon Shot?

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Ah, Bitcoin, the financial equivalent of a stubborn mule, is testing the 100-day SMA resistance for the third time. Will it finally break through, or will it face another humiliating rejection and tumble back to $59,800? Or, dare we dream, soar to $84K?

Here we are again, folks, at the edge of the financial precipice, watching Bitcoin teeter like a drunkard on a tightrope. The 100-day simple moving average is back in the spotlight, and it’s starting to feel like a bad sitcom rerun. Only this time, the laughs are on the traders.

According to Ali Charts on X, BTC is having its third go at the 100-day SMA in just six months. The first two attempts ended about as well as a wizard trying to cast a spell in a rainstorm. Spoiler: it didn’t end with rainbows and unicorns.

Two Rejections, One Pattern Even a Troll Could Spot

Back in October, Bitcoin flirted with the 100-day SMA near $116,000, only to be slapped back harder than a flyswatter on a particularly pesky insect. The result? A 30% nosedive to $80,000. Then, in January, it tried again at $97,000. That rejection was even more brutal-a 39% collapse that sent BTC crying all the way down to $59,800. Moral of the story? The SMA is not a door; it’s a brick wall.

And now, here we are again. Same level, different numbers, same old risk. It’s like watching a bad sequel where the protagonist keeps making the same mistakes. Will Bitcoin finally learn its lesson, or will it just keep banging its head against the wall?

Ali Charts, ever the doom-monger, warns that a third rejection would be more than just a pullback. It would be a full-on structural failure, a “triple top effect” that could send Bitcoin spiraling back to its yearly low of $59,800. Because, you know, why not test that floor again? It’s not like it’s been through enough already.

Bitcoin’s recovery timeline has been stretching longer than a dwarf’s patience in a tall crowd, with estimates pointing to nearly 300 days before the market stabilizes. That’s a lot of time to spend biting your nails and muttering darkly at your screen.

What a Breakout Would Actually Mean (Besides a Reason to Celebrate)

On the flip side, if Bitcoin manages to close above the 100-day SMA, it’s like the sun breaking through the clouds after a particularly long and miserable winter. Ali Charts sees the initial target zone between $80,000 and $84,000. But it’s more than just a price level-it’s a signal that the macro correction is over, at least structurally. The ceiling comes off, and the bulls can finally start dreaming of greener pastures.

Of course, Bitcoin’s relationship with broader equities has tightened more than a dwarf’s belt after a hearty meal. That macro connection means any clean SMA break needs more than just crypto momentum behind it. Stocks, flows, and sentiment all matter now, in ways they didn’t two years ago. It’s like trying to juggle while riding a unicycle-possible, but not for the faint of heart.

The Setup Right Now (Or: Will Bitcoin Finally Get a Clue?)

Three tests of the same resistance level in six months. Two failures. A pattern so clear even a troll could spot it. Traders are watching like hawks to see if BTC closes a daily candle above the SMA, not just taps it. Wicks don’t count; closes do. It’s the financial equivalent of a marriage proposal-you’ve got to commit.

The $59,800 level below isn’t just a support number; it’s the yearly low, a structural floor that’s already been tested once. A third rejection from the 100-day SMA would put that floor right back in play, like a bad habit Bitcoin just can’t quit.

So, here we are, on the edge of our seats, waiting to see if Bitcoin will finally break through or if it’s destined to repeat the same old mistakes. Bulls need a close. Bears just need another rejection. Place your bets, folks, because this is one financial drama you won’t want to miss.

Disclaimer: This article is based on technical analysis and sourced market commentary. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. In other words, don’t blame us if Bitcoin decides to take a nosedive.

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2026-04-16 20:01