Key Takeaways
What Each Analyst Is Actually Reading
As a researcher, I’ve been following Ethereum’s price action and have identified a potential bearish signal. Our analysis of the daily chart shows a breakdown from a triangle pattern. Specifically, the short-term moving average (5-period) has crossed below the long-term moving average (137-period), and both are trending downwards. We’ve also observed that after recent spikes in liquidations on Binance, the price hasn’t been able to sustain gains, repeatedly falling back to the day’s low. This behavior suggests the breakdown is likely valid. If Ethereum can’t recover and re-enter the triangle formation, we anticipate further selling pressure that could drive the price down towards the $1,350 support level.
Michaël van de Poppe believes the current price movement suggests a period of buying, pointing to a daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) below 30 and the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin ratio nearing a support level of 0.0260 after failing to surpass 0.03250. He cautions that prices could still fall further and this process of accumulation might take several weeks.
PelinayPA’s triangle analysis and van de Poppe’s accumulation zone aren’t disagreeing predictions. They’re looking at different aspects of the chart – one focuses on short-term price movement, while the other identifies areas where a long-term investment could be profitable based on the ETH/BTC ratio. Both analyses can be accurate at the same time: the price could still fall within the broken triangle pattern, even as the ETH/BTC ratio enters a zone where it makes sense to buy and hold for the long term.
Why the RSI Readings Are Not Comparing the Same Thing
I’ve been looking into claims about Ethereum’s RSI. It’s important to clarify that when someone says the daily RSI is below 30, that’s based on the ETH/BTC trading pair, not the more common ETH/USDT pair. Looking directly at the TradingView daily chart for ETH/USDT at 12:33 UTC, I found the RSI is actually at 36.72, with the signal line at 45.01.
We’re looking at two ways to measure Ethereum’s price: against Bitcoin and against the US dollar. If the Ethereum/Bitcoin price shows an oversold reading, it simply means Ethereum is being sold off more quickly than Bitcoin – it doesn’t necessarily indicate weakness against the dollar. Currently, the signal line measuring Ethereum’s price in Bitcoin is significantly above the signal line measuring it in dollars, suggesting that the weakening momentum is being seen in Bitcoin terms, not yet reflected in dollar pricing. It’s important to remember that a low reading (below 30) on the Ethereum/Bitcoin ratio is a signal about the *relationship* between the two currencies, not the price of Ethereum itself, and these two measurements should be considered together.
Why the SMA100 Convergence Is the Immediate Technical Question
The 100-day Simple Moving Average, currently at $2,151.10, is very close to the current price and trending downwards. This suggests Ethereum isn’t actively breaking through resistance from below, but rather waiting for the resistance level to fall to meet it. Whether the price bounces off this level or breaks through it will determine the next significant move in its daily price chart. This resistance is acting as a decreasing ceiling on the price.
The Variable the Price Chart Cannot Measure
One key factor in the current discussion – global bond yields – isn’t directly reflected in Ethereum’s price chart. If these yields are starting to stabilize or decrease, the extra reward investors demand for the risk of using DeFi (Decentralized Finance) could increase. This change would likely show up in on-chain activity – how people are actually using DeFi – *before* it’s visible in the price of ETH. Van de Poppe highlights that Japanese bond yields suggest this peak might be near. When bond yields across major economies stop rising, it reduces the returns available from safer investments, potentially freeing up capital to flow into DeFi. The shrinking difference between these safe returns and DeFi yields has made DeFi less appealing recently. Van de Poppe believes a reversal of this trend – higher DeFi yields compared to bonds – is crucial for a potential increase in ETH accumulation.
This idea unfolds over a longer period than the price pattern PelinayPA identified. A rise in yields would likely take months to play out, not just a few trading sessions. If the CLARITY Act passes the Senate in June, as predicted, and bond yields start to fall around the same time, the overall economic conditions van de Poppe anticipates will align with the current ETH price movement. However, if yields stay high and the price drops quickly towards $1,350 before either of these events happens, it would suggest the prediction about the price level was right, but the expected timing was off.
This article is just for educational purposes and shouldn’t be taken as financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com doesn’t support or suggest any particular investment or cryptocurrency. Before you make any investment decisions, be sure to do your own research and talk to a qualified financial advisor.
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2026-05-20 16:37