In the grand tapestry of economic deceit, a new thread has been woven. The CME FedWatch Tool, that great oracle of financial wizardry, has spoken: the probability of a Fed rate cut in July has plummeted to a paltry 4.7%.
This seismic shift, precipitated by a jobs report that defied the expectations of the pundit class, has sent shockwaves through the crypto market. The tantalizing prospect of lower interest rates, that great siren song of investors, has been all but extinguished.
The June US jobs report, a veritable cornucopia of statistical wizardry, revealed an unemployment rate of 4.1%, a number that has been hailed as a triumph by the usual suspects. Charlie Bilello, that great sage of finance, opined, “The US Unemployment Rate moved down to 4.1% in June, the lowest since February. Remains well below the historical average of 5.7%.”
But what of the jobs themselves? Ah, dear reader, it appears that the sectors that saw growth were those bastions of productivity, state government jobs and healthcare. Meanwhile, the federal government, that great behemoth of bureaucratic inefficiency, experienced job cuts.
Peter Schiff, that great Cassandra of economics, wryly observed, “92% of the 147,000 jobs supposedly created in June were in government, healthcare, or social services. Manufacturing continued to lose jobs. These non-productive jobs raise our trade deficits, and lead to more government debt and higher inflation. Investors won’t be fooled forever.”
And yet, the bond market, that great barometer of investor sentiment, reacted with all the subtlety of a sledgehammer. The 10-year Treasury yield, that great benchmark of interest rates, surged to 4.36%.
Why, you ask? Ah, dear reader, it is quite simple: the economy, that great Ponzi scheme, is doing well. Investors, those great lemmings of finance, are less worried about the future and are willing to invest in safer options, like US government bonds.
BREAKING: The 10Y Note Yield surges to 4.36% after the June jobs report crushes expectations.
While the unemployment rate was expected to rise to 4.3%, it FELL to 4.1%.
The bond market thinks Powell has even more of a reason to not cut rates here.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 3, 2025
And so, the Federal Reserve, that great mausoleum of monetary policy, may have fewer reasons to cut interest rates in July. The CME FedWatch Tool, that great crystal ball of finance, has spoken.
But what of the crypto market, that great Wild West of finance? Ah, dear reader, it appears that the decrease in demand could weigh on prices. Higher interest rates make traditional investments, like bonds, more appealing, potentially diverting attention away from riskier assets such as cryptocurrencies.
And yet, there are those who remain bullish, who see the global money supply surging to $55.48 trillion, who see the US dollar having its worst performance in the first half of the year since 1973.
CryptosRus, that great sage of crypto, opined, “Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s chart looks locked onto $170,000 — and it knows what’s coming. Fiat is expanding. BTC is eyeing escape velocity.”
And so, dear reader, we are left with a choice: to invest in the grand Ponzi scheme of traditional finance or to seek refuge in the Wild West of crypto. Ah, but what a wonderful choice it is! 🤑
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2025-07-04 12:36