The Hidden Bitcoin Bull Trigger That’ll Blow Your Mind (2025 Edition!)

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In a delightful chinwag with The Bitcoin Economy podcast, James Seyffart, the sage of Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analysis, made a rather bold prediction. It appears the next, and quite possibly the most colossal, surge in institutional demand for spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds will not emerge from the usual suspects – pension funds, endowments, or sovereign wealth managers. Oh no, my dear reader! It will appear when the country’s rather disjointed network of registered investment advisers (RIAs) finally gets the nod to recommend Bitcoin ETFs to ordinary folk.

“The greatest bull case for the ETFs has been the grand unlocking of RIAs in 2025,” Seyffart proclaimed, like a man who had just discovered the secret to everlasting life. “At the moment, the majority of assets are trapped in that perplexing middle zone, where, if a client asks about buying a Bitcoin ETF, the adviser can act – but can’t, heaven forbid, initiate the recommendation.”

The Biggest Bull Case for Bitcoin in 2025

Seyffart cleverly broke down the compliance logjam into a traffic-light system most financial advisers will know and loathe. A red-light firm bans Bitcoin outright; a yellow-light firm permits unsolicited purchases (“If you ask me, I can help”); and the highly coveted green-light firm allows the adviser to actively recommend Bitcoin (“Why not put 2% of your portfolio in Bitcoin?”). Delightful, isn’t it?

Now, wire-house broker-dealers, those behemoths of finance that still hold trillions of dollars, mostly languish in the red or yellow camps, paralyzed by endless, years-long due diligence committees. Meanwhile, independent RIAs are zipping along like nimble cheetahs, “the early adopters,” as Seyffart put it, because they don’t have to wait for some committee in New York to give them the green light. However, even independent advisers face hurdles, as most outsource portfolio construction to centralised models; until those models give Bitcoin ETFs the stamp of approval, discretionary uptake will remain sluggish.

But fear not, dear investor! Seyffart’s focus on 2025 isn’t just because he’s a fan of nice round numbers. No, it’s a strategically timed move. The first full-calendar year after launch will provide compliance teams with a year’s worth of daily NAV history – often a non-negotiable requirement for an ETF to graduate from yellow to green status. “Typically, it can take two to three years for an ETF to get approval,” Seyffart sighed, “but the sheer size and liquidity of the spot-Bitcoin world is fast-tracking that process.” How convenient!

And here’s where it gets thrilling. The next Form 13F reporting deadline is 15 August 2025, and it will reveal second-quarter holdings as of 30 June. Seyffart is rather excited about this, expecting that “a great many more RIAs will have come online and are buying Bitcoin for their clients.” This, my friends, will be the first concrete proof that the green light is shining bright.

If the compliance gatekeepers finally open the floodgates, model-portfolio designers can start weaving Bitcoin’s notoriously uncorrelated returns into their strategic frameworks. That would allow advisers to legally recommend Bitcoin exposure, triggering a tidal wave of inflows. Naturally, compliance teams will still demand rock-solid fiduciary justifications (because nothing screams “fun” like paperwork), but Seyffart believes the ETF wrapper is a familiar comfort for any wealth platform.

Seyffart’s grand theory is this: the moment enough compliance committees make the switch from yellow to green, the inflows could be absolutely monstrous. Whether that magical moment happens in the next year, well, that, in his view, will mark the start of “the biggest bull case for Bitcoin” yet.

As of this very moment, BTC is trading at a tidy $108,250. Fancy that!

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2025-07-08 14:18