
So some guy named CryptoChan (sounds like the name I give my pet goldfish when I’ve had one too many Manischewitz) dropped an X post on May 22 with data from a bottom indicator that’s been right more often than my cousin Moe’s predictions about which horse is guaranteed to lose the Preakness. It’s built from two fancy schmancy realized price bands: the 6 month to 10 year Realized Price, which is just the average acquisition cost of all the long-term Bitcoin holders who’ve been holding through every crash since 2017 like they’re hoarding canned goods for the apocalypse, currently sitting at $60,316, roughly the cost of a 3 foot long pastrami sandwich from Katz’s Deli. The other is the 0 to 10 year Realized Price, which is the average cost basis for the entire crypto market circus, sitting at $64,412, about the price of a used minivan that only runs on Tuesdays and smells like old popcorn. The ratio between these two tells you how stressed the long-term holders are compared to the rest of the market schmucks. When it drops below 0.936 and then crawls back up toward 1.0? It’s marked the exact bottom moment of every single prior Bitcoin cycle, no exceptions, not even when I made a musical about Hitler (okay, that one was good, but still, this metric’s more reliable than that).