Bitcoin is hovering around $89,200 at press time, like it wandered into a polite cocktail party and decided to stay for the small talk. A 1% gain in the last 24 hours is cute, but the real star is a moving-average cross that sounds like two old friends finally arguing over something practical-the 21-week EMA has slipped below the 50-week EMA. In other words, the grown-up chart expects trouble, or at least a good story for the next coffee shop visit.
Moving Average Crossover Returns
The pattern isn’t a unique snowflake; it keeps showing up in market cycles, stitching the same cautionary quilt: 2018, 2022, and now early 2026. BTC is still above $89,000, but history treats this as a punctual reminder that past performance is a terrible magician and prices tend to vanish when you blink.
Traders are watching to see if this time the script will repeat or if the market has decided to improvise with better lighting and a louder soundtrack.
Meanwhile, on January 27, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $147 million in net outflows (per SoSoValues’s data). If you hoped this signaled a glamorous ETF party, think again-it’s more like a clearance sale on confidence, with big holders cashing out as if their yachts suddenly developed a fear of waves.
Analysts are eyeing the $70,000-$75,000 range as a potential support zone if the current price can’t hold. Veteran trader Peter Brandt recently suggested Bitcoin could slip toward $58,000 to $62,000 if the structure breaks lower. It’s the sort of forecast that makes you want to hug your wallet and reconsider your life choices, all at once.
Macro Events May Add Pressure
Two major events are set for January 28 that could influence crypto markets: US crude oil inventory data and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. It’s like having two stern aunts at Thanksgiving, both ready to weigh in on whether the gravy should be thicker or if the entire table should pivot to “risk-on.”
Historically, Bitcoin has shown weakness around FOMC meetings. Data from 2025 shows that after seven of the eight FOMC meetings, BTC experienced price drops. One of the largest was a 29% fall after the October 29 announcement. Chartist Ali Martinez wrote,
“HOW BITCOIN $BTC WILL REACT TO FOMC MEETING, LAST TIME IT DROPPED BY -9%.”
Supply in Loss Begins to Climb
According to CryptoQuant’s Woominkyu, Bitcoin’s Supply in Loss (%) is trending upward again. In past cycles, this was one of the early signs of a longer bearish trend, like a baby alarm clock that won’t stop reminding you that you forgot to turn on the heat last winter.
The metric remains below levels seen during full capitulation, but the direction of change may be worth watching. Similar shifts were recorded in 2014, 2018, and 2022 before the market found its low point and decided to take a long, indifferent nap.
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2026-01-28 13:28