Bitcoin HODLers Accidentally Tanking Market – Here’s the Shocking Reason!

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Bitcoin’s latest dip? Yeah, it’s basically a rollercoaster that only goes down these days. After a 5% plunge-because apparently, 5% is just a “slight correction” in crypto speak-it briefly hit $62,700. Macro concerns? Oh, that’s just Wall Street’s way of saying, “We’re panicking, but we’re too proud to admit it.”

BTC’s in a “defensive phase,” which is code for “everyone’s selling like their pants are on fire.” New data says capital’s fleeing the network faster than a broke HODLer at a bear market. Supply is aging like my dad’s wine collection-slowly, stubbornly, and with zero chance of improvement.

Peak Buyers Now Frozen

Realized Cap? Sounds like a diet plan, but it’s actually the network bleeding cash like a stuck pig. Axel Adler Junior’s analysis? Let’s just say it’s not a love letter to Bitcoin. The 30-day Realized Cap Net Position Change is -2.26%, which is basically crypto’s version of a “negative vibes only” party.

Realized Cap peaked on November 26, 2025, at $1.127 trillion, but now it’s down to $1.094 trillion. That’s a $33 billion compression-like watching your savings account evaporate while eating expired cereal.

Daily net position changes? They’re hovering around zero or negative, which means new capital’s about as likely to show up as a unicorn at a Fed meeting. Until the 30-day Realized Cap turns positive, we’re stuck in “outflow mode.” Accumulation? That’s a luxury, not a strategy.

HODL Waves data? More coins are getting older than my ex’s grudge. The 3-6 month old coins now make up 26% of supply-bought near the peak, sitting at a loss, and refusing to move. It’s like a bad dating profile: “I’m committed, but I’m also broke and bitter.”

The 6-12 month HODLers? They’re 20% of the supply, but who cares? Short-term buyers? Less than 10%. Classic. Everyone’s just holding onto losses like they’re vintage NFTs.

Familiar Bear Signal Is Back

The “death cross” is back. No, not the metal band, the one that terrifies investors. Analyst Ali Martinez says it’s forming on Bitcoin’s three-day chart by late February. In past cycles, this signal was the opening act for a market meltdown. And with Bitcoin still 50% below its October 2025 peak, Martinez’s warning is basically crypto’s version of “the sky is falling… again.”

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2026-02-24 17:56