Bitcoin & Jobs: A Wild Week 🎢

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So, apparently, the fate of Bitcoin now hinges on… employment numbers? It’s a strange world, isn’t it? I used to think digital currency was about sticking it to the man, about freedom from the constraints of traditional finance. Now it’s nervously glancing at the Bureau of Labor Statistics like a teenager waiting for his curfew.

Apparently, the labor market is now the “critical macro signal” for Bitcoin. Which means economists, who were spectacularly wrong about inflation for, oh, the last two years, are now going to tell us what color our digital coins should be. Great. 🙄

US Jobs Data That Could Move Bitcoin This Week

JOLTS

First up, we have JOLTS. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. It sounds…robust, doesn’t it? Like a hearty handshake. Basically, it counts how many people are quitting, getting hired, and generally shuffling around the workforce. In July there were 7.2 million job openings. Frankly, the numbers feel made up, but hey, who am I to judge? 🤷

Economists, those seers of all things predictable, think it’ll go down to 7.1 million in August. Because downward trends are very important for Bitcoin, apparently. If it goes *up*, though? Hold onto your hats, folks. The rally will be “stalled,” and the world will end (probably). Or, you know, Bitcoin will wobble a bit. It’s hard to tell.

ADP Employment

Then there’s ADP. A private survey, because clearly, the government’s data isn’t fancy enough. They think private sector jobs increased by 40,000 in September. Which is…something. It’s a drop from August, but honestly, at this point, I’m just waiting for the numbers to start describing weather patterns instead of economic health.

A slowdown means a weaker dollar, which, in turn, is supposed to make Bitcoin look good. It’s like saying, “Our house is falling apart, but look at the nice paint job on the other house!” 🏘️

Initial Jobless Claims

And every Thursday, we get the delightful spectacle of “Initial Jobless Claims.” People losing their jobs, presented as a key indicator of Bitcoin’s value. It’s a bit morbid, isn’t it? They’re expecting 228,000 claims. If it goes up, the Fed might be nice to us. If it stays the same, indifference reigns. Progress, I guess? 🤷‍♀️

Employment Report

Finally, on Friday, the grand finale: the Employment Report. A forecast of 45,000 new jobs, with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%. This could be “neutral-to-dovish.” Which is economist-speak for “We have no idea what’s going to happen, so we’re hedging our bets.” For Bitcoin, it *might* support rate cuts. Which means…more liquidity. Because liquidity is king, even in the digital realm.

Honestly, it all feels a bit arbitrary. Numbers going up, numbers going down. It reminds me of my aunt Mildred trying to understand cryptocurrency. She just stares blankly and asks if she can use coupons. 💸

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2025-09-29 11:52