Bitcoin Soars, Ethereum Slumps: Altcoin Season? 🚀💸

The crypto market, in a fit of optimism, edged higher today following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25-basis-point rate cut, which has sparked a flicker of hope across the risk assets spectrum. 🚀 Bitcoin, ever the show-off, is trading around $117,000, while Ethereum, the perpetually underappreciated sibling, holds steady near $4,600. The broader crypto market cap rose modestly, with major altcoins mixed but stable-like a family gathering where no one dares to bring up the past. 🧙‍♂️

Analysts, ever the cautious optimists, note the short-term tone is constructive, supported by ETF inflows and macro easing. But caution remains, as traders wait for a clear trigger to unlock the next phase of the bull cycle-like waiting for a guest to arrive at a party where the host has forgotten to invite them. 🎉

Crypto Analyst Benjamin Cowen described the current cycle as “one of the most boring bull markets we’ve ever seen.” He highlighted why history suggests that October 2025 could be decisive for Bitcoin, with a potential cycle top forming between October and December. “It’s like watching a train slowly approach the station, but no one’s sure if it’s going to stop,” he said. 🚂

“Normally, cycles end in Q4 of the post-halving year,” Cowen mused, as if the market were a well-rehearsed play with no surprises. 🎭

Why Altcoin Season Hasn’t Arrived Yet

Despite growing calls for an altcoin rally, Cowen stressed that the timeline is being misunderstood-like a toddler trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube. “It was first Bitcoin to ETH, and now there’s a rotation back to Bitcoin. The altseason calls are premature,” he said, as if explaining to a toddler that the sky isn’t actually made of cheese. 🧀

“It was first Bitcoin to ETH, and now there’s a rotation back to Bitcoin. The altseason calls are premature,” he said.

According to him, a true altcoin season, the kind seen in late 2017 and 2021, requires Ethereum to break and hold durable all-time highs. Until ETH reclaims its 21-week EMA and rallies into sustained highs, the market will remain Bitcoin-led-like a monarchy where the crown prince is still in diapers. 👶👑

October Is Bitcoin’s Month

Cowen pointed out a consistent historical trend: Bitcoin dominance bottoms in September and rises sharply in October. “Bitcoin dominance normally reverses course in September and then explodes higher in October,” he said, as if announcing the arrival of a long-awaited guest. 🎉

“Bitcoin dominance normally reverses course in September and then explodes higher in October,” he said, adding that this pattern strengthens the case for a Bitcoin-driven month ahead.

Institutions Driving, Retail Still Missing

Another defining feature of this cycle is the lack of retail mania. “Retail really doesn’t care… we just have the same investors from four years ago. This cycle is more ETF-driven, institutionally driven,” Cowen observed, as if commenting on a dull dinner party. 🍽️

“Retail really doesn’t care… we just have the same investors from four years ago. This cycle is more ETF-driven, institutionally driven,” Cowen observed.

While Wall Street capital has fueled Bitcoin’s climb, smaller traders remain cautious, still waiting for altcoin profits-like a child waiting for Santa to arrive with a toy they’ve already outgrown. 🎁

Q4 Strategy: Conservative Allocation

Looking ahead, Cowen suggests a conservative allocation focused on risk-adjusted returns: “Around 83% Bitcoin, 17% ETH-about an 80/20 split,” he said. “It’s the financial equivalent of wearing a life jacket while swimming in a pool of gold.” 🏊‍♂️💰

“Around 83% Bitcoin, 17% ETH-about an 80/20 split,” he said.

He expects Bitcoin to outperform altcoins in the near term, with Ethereum taking the lead only if it breaks out into sustained new highs-like a frog finally learning to jump over a puddle. 🐸

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FAQs

Why hasn’t an altcoin season happened yet?

A true altcoin season requires Ethereum to reach and hold new all-time highs. Currently, the market is primarily Bitcoin-led, driven by institutional interest and ETF inflows-like a monologue where only one person is speaking. 🗣️

How are institutional investors impacting the crypto market?

Institutional capital, especially from new Bitcoin ETFs, is a major driver of this bull cycle. This is different from past cycles, which were fueled more by retail investors-like a symphony conducted by a single violin. 🎻

Why is the current crypto bull market called boring?

Lack of retail hype and altcoin rallies makes this cycle subdued, driven by institutional ETF investments rather than widespread mania-like a party where no one is dancing. 🕺

2025-09-18 10:12