Markets
What to know:
- Long-term holders now clutch nearly 80% of bitcoin, inching toward the mystical 85%-a figure whispered about in the shadowy corners of bear market lore.
- Even if a price floor is forming, history shows that bitcoin prefers to meander about like a drunken philosopher before grace descends upon it.
Ah, the eternal musings of cryptocurrency devotees! How much lower might bitcoin tumble? And how long will this bear, with its yawning maw, keep gnawing at our hopes?
The torment of price has been debated at many a candlelit supper, but the torment of time-oh, that slow, creeping agony-is another kettle of fish entirely.
Price pain is the sharp sting, the bite that makes even the stoutest trader wince. Time pain, by contrast, is the dull ache of months spent wandering in a foggy purgatory of sideways charts, exhausting bulls and bears alike with nothing but ennui and the occasional sigh.
Presently, bitcoin flails below $66,000, down more than 3% in the last 24 hours, a pitiful 45% below the October peak-a bear market dragging on for almost half a year, like a coach horse refusing to budge.
One peculiar talisman for this sluggish torment is the Realized Cap HODL Waves from the oracle Glassnode. These waves categorize bitcoin by its last adventure, each layer a testament to patience, weighted by the price at which coins last exchanged hands. One imagines them like wise, sedentary monks who have seen much but said little.
History tells us that bear market bottoms arrive only when long-term holders-those who have twiddled their digital coins for six months or more-command at least 85% of the supply. First comes the floor, then, in slow motion, these stalwarts appear, clutching their treasure through thick and thin.
Currently, our patient monks control roughly 80% of the bitcoin. Should this creeping trend persist, the market may be inching toward its murky bottom. Yet do not be fooled: months of dreary consolidation may still lie ahead, like gray clouds stubbornly refusing to drift from the sky.
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2026-04-02 16:49