Bitcoin’s Bullish Shift: 70% of Long-Term Holders in Profit as Supply Tightens

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In the green: 70% of long-term holders are in profit as the <a href="https://investment-policy.com/btc-usd/">bitcoin</a> floor hardensMarkets

What to know:

  • Bitcoin held by so-called conviction buyers has surged to nearly 4 million BTC, a roughly 300% increase since late 2025, signaling a major shift of supply into long-term, low-activity hands.
  • Analysts say this accumulation, led by large holders such as Strategy (MSTR), is tightening liquid supply on exchanges and could set the stage for a future supply shock if demand accelerates.

Bitcoin’s market is changing, with data from BitGo, shared by Bitfinex on Wednesday, showing that nearly 4 million BTC is now held by long-term investors – those who are likely to hold onto their coins even during price drops.

According to Bitfinex, Bitcoin held by long-term investors has increased by 300% since the end of 2025. This suggests a significant shift in the value of Bitcoin, with more of it now held by large entities that aren’t actively trading.

Currently, with Bitcoin trading around $80,000, the total value of all Bitcoin held as ‘conviction’ is a little over $320 billion.

Market analyst Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, points to a significant trend from BitGo, though the specifics of how they measure ‘conviction buyers’ aren’t public. He explains that historically, when there’s less bitcoin readily available and demand increases, it often leads to substantial price increases.

Bitfinex reports that recent strong buying activity represents the biggest two-quarter increase since the market bottomed out during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic. These buyers, often called ‘conviction buyers,’ are long-term investors, including both individuals and institutions.

Jameson Lopp, a key Bitcoin developer, notes that the estimated 5.6 million Bitcoin that hasn’t been used in over ten years doesn’t include coins held by long-term investors. Currently, there are 20.03 million Bitcoin in circulation, according to CoinDesk.

According to analysts at Bitfinex, an increasing portion of the total value of Bitcoin is being held by long-term holders who don’t often buy or sell, even when prices fluctuate. This means less Bitcoin is actively traded on exchanges.

The recent change in how bitcoin is held indicates that long-term investors – including large institutions and companies – are actively buying up available bitcoin. MicroStrategy (MSTR), the biggest corporate bitcoin holder with $4.6 billion in profits from their investment, recently increased its holdings to 818,869 BTC, purchased for around $62 billion. When bitcoin moves to these long-term holders who don’t trade often, it decreases the amount available for purchase on exchanges, potentially leading to a sudden price increase due to limited supply.

Recent research from CEX.IO suggests the cryptocurrency market is becoming more stable. Their analysis shows that almost 70% of recent buyers are now seeing a profit on their investments. This is often seen as a positive sign, as it makes people less likely to sell, which can help prevent price drops, according to CEX.IO.

CEX.IO notes that when new Bitcoin investors start seeing profits, they become less likely to sell during small price dips. This reduced selling pressure can help keep Bitcoin’s price more stable.

According to Ran Hammer, VP of Business Development at Orbs, bitcoin owners generally prefer to buy and hold, rather than sell, especially now that they can borrow money using their bitcoin as collateral. This significantly reduces the amount of bitcoin available on the market, changing the overall supply dynamics.

Enso’s CEO and co-founder, Connor Howe, told CoinDesk in an email that he thinks the idea of Bitcoin being limited in supply is becoming more and more accepted by the market, moving beyond just a theory.

He explained that money flowing into ETFs and being held by long-term institutional investors is now a consistent trend, not just short-term speculation. This means more of the available supply is being held by those who strongly believe in the asset, and when demand increases, the limited availability could become much more noticeable.

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2026-05-13 19:02