As an analyst, I’ve been reviewing a new report on quantum computing, and the findings are concerning for the crypto industry. Essentially, we may be rapidly approaching a point where current encryption methods become vulnerable to attacks. This poses a significant risk – potentially over $2 trillion in digital assets could be at stake if the industry doesn’t proactively prepare for this evolving threat.
Summary
- Quantus warned that quantum computing progress has accelerated faster than much of the crypto industry’s post-quantum planning.
- The report said millions of lost Bitcoin could become exposed because inaccessible wallets cannot migrate to quantum-resistant addresses.
- Researchers behind the report said recent advances from Google and other quantum firms have reduced the estimated resources needed to break Bitcoin’s cryptography.
A new report called “The State of Quantum” from Quantus suggests that advances in quantum computing technology and error correction are changing predictions about when quantum computers powerful enough to break current encryption methods might be available.
The report claims the danger is now real. The mathematical steps needed to crack elliptic curve cryptography – the security system behind Bitcoin and most blockchains – have been known for many years.
According to the report, recent advancements from companies like Google, IBM, and Quantinuum – occurring between 2024 and 2026 – have led experts to revise their expectations for when quantum computing will become a reality.
A key study by Google Quantum AI, published in March 2026, suggested that Shor’s algorithm could potentially break the cryptography securing Bitcoin (specifically, the secp256k1 elliptic curve) using fewer than 500,000 qubits, assuming certain advancements in computer hardware.
The report confirmed that Bitcoin’s encryption hasn’t been cracked yet, but it pointed out that the computing power needed to potentially break it has decreased significantly recently.
Recent research, including three papers published in the last year, has significantly lowered estimates of the quantum computing power required to break elliptic curve cryptography – by almost 90%.
Quantum timelines and crypto exposure collide
As a crypto investor, one thing that really stood out to me in a recent report is the unique security challenge we face. Unlike regular internet companies that can fix vulnerabilities with software updates, the way blockchains work means our public keys are permanently visible on the blockchain. This leaves a huge number of crypto addresses potentially open to attacks down the line, and it’s a problem traditional tech doesn’t really have to worry about.
The report highlighted a potential future risk where hackers could gather blockchain information now and store it until quantum computers become powerful enough to actually exploit it. This is often called a “harvest now, decrypt later” strategy.
The report also points to the problem of lost Bitcoin. Quantus estimates that between 2.3 and 3.7 million Bitcoin are now unreachable because their owners have lost the private keys needed to access them – this includes coins potentially owned by Bitcoin’s founder, Satoshi Nakamoto.
The report cautioned that these wallets can’t be updated to protect against future quantum computer attacks, meaning they could be permanently vulnerable once that technology advances.
According to Gnosis Guild co-founder Auryn Macmillan, the most effective way forward is to require account owners to switch to quantum-safe accounts by a specific date. After that deadline, any tokens remaining in older, vulnerable accounts will be permanently locked.
The report also noted that the tech industry is already getting ready for a future where current encryption methods are vulnerable. In August 2024, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) established new, quantum-resistant encryption standards – including ML-DSA, ML-KEM, and SLH-DSA. Major companies like Google, Signal, Apple, and Cloudflare have started implementing these protections, with plans to fully transition by 2029 or 2030.
Bitcoin migration debate gains urgency
The report also noted that the cryptocurrency industry is still debating the best way to move forward with upgrades. It highlighted Bitcoin’s upgrade process as especially complex, citing difficulties in getting everyone to agree, concerns about handling increased transaction volume, and the challenge of updating its security features without creating new weaknesses.
As a researcher following developments in blockchain security, I’ve just learned that Ripple has announced a 2028 target for making the XRP Ledger resistant to attacks from quantum computers. They’ve indicated that the threat posed by quantum computing is no longer just a hypothetical concern, but a credible one they’re actively preparing for.
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) April 21, 2026
Stanford cryptographer Dan Boneh, who helped author a Google study on quantum computing, recently cautioned that quickly updating Bitcoin to be resistant to quantum computers could actually be more risky than the existing threats. This information was previously covered by crypto.news.
In a May interview, Dan Boneh explained to Isabel Foxen Duke that he believes rushing to adopt defenses against quantum computers is a bigger risk than actually being attacked by one. He fears a premature switch could create major, unforeseen problems.
Despite this, Boneh emphasized the importance of being prepared for the future. In an interview, he explained that he favored a slow transition to new, quantum-resistant signature methods and combining them with current systems, rather than immediately overhauling Bitcoin’s existing security setup.
Wallet providers face challenges supporting advanced, quantum-resistant encryption methods due to limitations in the hardware they use. According to Aaron Chen, CTO of Keystone, algorithms like ML-DSA-87 require a lot of memory and processing power, which can strain hardware wallets.
Hardware wallets usually run on microcontrollers, which have limited processing power and memory. According to Chen’s report, adding support for new, more secure post-quantum standards makes designing these wallets even more difficult while still providing a good user experience.
I was reading a report, and Resonance’s chief content officer, Matt Swayne, made a really good point – I think a lot of us in crypto are actually *underestimating* just how fast things are moving. The tech is developing so quickly, it’s easy to lose sight of the pace of innovation.
There’s a lot of talk about the potential of quantum computing, but we also need to recognize the real advancements the industry *has* already made, according to Swayne.
Quantus determined that postponing the switch to quantum technology could lead to both economic and political problems when quantum computers are fully operational.
The report finds that starting preparations for quantum computing too soon can cause practical problems and unnecessarily large data transfers. However, waiting too long carries significant risks, including financial losses, widespread concern, and potential government action once quantum attacks become a reality.
Natalie Brunell recently addressed and debunked fears about a potential quantum computing threat to Bitcoin during a live appearance on Fox News. She explained that the necessary hardware doesn’t currently exist, the threat isn’t happening anytime soon, and Bitcoin is expected to adapt and overcome the issue when and if it becomes a real concern.
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) May 25, 2026
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2026-05-28 11:01