According to CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin’s current downturn could last until the beginning of 2027, judging by data tracking profits and losses on the blockchain.
Summary
- Ki Young Ju cited CryptoQuant’s PnL Index Signal, which shows investor profitability typically falls for 18 months after profit-taking cascades begin.
- The trend began in October 2025, placing a potential bear market bottom in early 2027 based on historical patterns.
- A true reversal requires unrealized profits to rise while realized profits fall simultaneously, a signal that has not yet appeared.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, recently warned on X that Bitcoin’s current price drop is similar to previous long-term declines seen in 2014, 2018, and 2022. He suggests this downturn might not end until the beginning of 2027.
According to Ju, Bitcoin investors usually see their profits decline for around 18 months after a wave of selling. Given that this downturn began in October 2025, the bear market could continue until early 2027. He notes that the market will only shift when potential profits start to increase and actual profits decrease – a point we haven’t reached yet.
When Bitcoin investors start selling to take profits, their overall gains usually decline for around 18 months. Because this selling pressure began in October 2025, the current downturn could last until early 2027. This pattern will only reverse when potential profits increase and actual profits decrease – and that hasn’t happened yet.
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) May 29, 2026
What the PnL Index shows
Ju’s research focuses on CryptoQuant’s PnL Index Signal, which uses a 365-day moving average to monitor how profitable investors are. This indicator recently reached a high point similar to those seen before major market downturns in 2014, 2018, and 2022. Historically, when this signal peaked and then started to decline, it was followed by significant and lasting price drops.
At the time of this report, Bitcoin was trading around $73,000, which is about 30% lower than its peak value earlier in 2025. This drop comes as rising US Treasury yields and a general move away from riskier investments are creating economic headwinds. Crypto.news previously noted that negative opinions about Bitcoin on social media reached a 2026 high in early April, coinciding with a decrease in buying interest.
Ju is looking for a specific sign that a market downturn is ending: a situation where potential profits start to increase at the same time that actual profits decrease. This would suggest that sellers are losing steam and buyers are becoming more dominant. Until this happens, Ju believes the expectation of continued falling prices remains valid.
Some analysts disagree with the idea that Bitcoin’s recovery will take a long time. Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, recently told CNBC that Bitcoin might be reaching a low point in its price cycle, noting that options trading has become more stable and long-term holders are selling less. Coinbase’s report from April 2024 suggests that prices could start to recover between May and June, which could lead to a stronger performance in the third quarter.
How Bitcoin recovers from this level
To see a lasting recovery, analysts at Ju point to two key factors: continued investment through spot Bitcoin ETFs and more trading from large institutional investors. Both of these areas have slowed down recently. While ETFs are still attracting money, the rate of investment has returned to normal after a big increase earlier in 2025.
Data from CryptoQuant reveals that more money is flowing into Bitcoin, but its overall market value isn’t increasing at the same rate. According to analyst Ju, this disconnect – when investment goes up but prices stay flat or fall – is a key sign of a bear market.
Bitcoin is currently holding steady around $73,000. According to CoinGlass, significant selling pressure exists between $74,200 and $74,500. While the possible approval of the Clarity Act is seen as a major factor that could influence investor feelings, analyst Ju’s profit and loss model suggests price movements aren’t necessarily tied to when or if the Act passes.
Read More
- BTC PREDICTION. BTC cryptocurrency
- WLD PREDICTION. WLD cryptocurrency
- EUR USD PREDICTION
- Silver Rate Forecast
- Gold Rate Forecast
- EUR CNY PREDICTION
- USD JPY PREDICTION
- OKB PREDICTION. OKB cryptocurrency
- ZEC PREDICTION. ZEC cryptocurrency
- USD KRW PREDICTION
2026-05-30 12:15