Ethereum’s $1,800 Zone in Peril? Larry Says ‘Calm Down’

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Ethereum’s $1,800 Zone in Peril? Larry Says ‘Calm Down’

Ethereum price has come under renewed pressure after a major on-chain event shook the market. Since March 6, ETH has dropped nearly 8%, even though it is down only about 1.4% over the past 24 hours.

The weakness followed a $157 million ETH transfer by Ethereum co-founder Jeffrey Wilcke, possibly to dump. However, deeper on-chain data now suggests that some whale cohorts may actually be trying to absorb the selling pressure. Oh, great, now even the whales are playing poker with your money. What’s next, a “I’m not selling, I’m just holding” sign?

Co-Founder’s $157 Million Transfer May Be Misread as Whale Selling

Ethereum’s recent weakness began when Jeffrey Wilcke, one of the network’s co-founders, moved 79,176 ETH to the Kraken exchange, worth roughly $157 million at current prices. Large transfers to exchanges often signal potential selling activity and can hit sentiment hard. Shortly after this transfer appeared, standard whale metrics also showed a decline in large ETH holdings. Because nothing says “I’m a responsible investor” like moving $157 million into an exchange. What could possibly go wrong?

Jeffrey Wilcke, the Co-founder of #Ethereum, appears to be selling $ETH!

He deposited 79,176 $ETH($157M) into #Kraken ~20 minutes ago.

– Lookonchain (@lookonchain) March 7, 2026

Data tracking Ethereum supply held by whales outside exchanges dropped by roughly 80,000 ETH, almost identical to the size of Wilcke’s transfer. This is an important detail. Or as Larry would say, “Wow, what a coincidence! Who knew a single guy’s transfer could be so… dramatic?”

Because whale metrics group many large wallets together, a single very large wallet movement can sometimes appear as broad whale selling. In this case, the 80,000 ETH decline closely matches Wilcke’s deposit, suggesting the co-founder’s transfer may be reflected in those whale metrics. So, the whales are just… doing their thing. No need to panic, right?

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In other words, what initially looked like widespread whale distribution could simply be one large founder-level transfer showing up inside aggregate data. This is why a deeper breakdown of whale cohorts becomes important. Because if you don’t look closely, you might think the sky is falling. Which, honestly, is always a possibility.

Whale Cohorts Are Actually Accumulating

When whale data is examined more closely using balanced cohort metrics, the narrative becomes very different. Two major Ethereum whale cohorts have been increasing their holdings during the same period. Because nothing says “I’m bullish” like buying more crypto while everyone else is panicking.

The first group consists of wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ETH. This cohort began accumulating on March 5, raising its supply from 6.28 million ETH to about 6.40 million ETH. So, they’re not just holding-they’re growing their stash. What a concept!

That represents an increase of roughly 120,000 ETH, worth approximately $234 million at current prices. Wow, that’s a lot of coins. And here I thought I was smart for buying a single Bitcoin.

Another cohort: wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million ETH, also began accumulating shortly afterward. Since March 6, their holdings have increased from 11.48 million ETH to roughly 11.57 million ETH, meaning they added nearly 90,000 ETH, worth about $175 million. Because nothing says “I’m confident” like buying more crypto when the market’s in turmoil.

This accumulation suggests that some large investors may have stepped in to absorb the supply entering the market, offsetting part of the selling pressure. It also explains why the broader whale metrics initially appeared bearish, even though specific whale groups were actually increasing their exposure. Because sometimes, the real story is hidden in the details. Or, as Larry would say, “Don’t believe everything you read. Especially if it’s written by a robot.”

Momentum Signal and Rising Channel Flag Contradictory Moves

Even before the co-founder transfer appeared, Ethereum’s chart had already started flashing warning signs. On the 8-hour chart, ETH formed a hidden bearish divergence between February 14 and March 6. During that period, the Ethereum price created a lower high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, formed a higher high. Because nothing says “market is stable” like a chart that’s trying to confuse you.

Hidden bearish divergence typically appears during downtrends and often signals that selling pressure is still present despite temporary rebounds. Soon after the signal appeared, Ethereum weakened and eventually dropped nearly 8%, triggered further by the possible Co-Founder transfer. Because if you can’t trust the chart, what can you trust?

At the same time, ETH has been trading inside a rising channel since February 24, which indicates that buyers were still attempting to build a short-term bullish structure. This channel may also explain why certain whale cohorts continued accumulating. Because if you’re a whale, you need to look bullish, even if you’re secretly terrified.

However, that bullish structure is now under pressure. If Ethereum breaks below the lower boundary of the rising channel, the bearish momentum indicated by the RSI divergence could accelerate. But whales are not the only optimistic cohort. Because if there’s one thing crypto investors love, it’s contradicting themselves.

Long-Term Holders Continue Accumulating as $1,800 Ethereum Price Risk Emerges

Despite the recent selling pressure, long-term Ethereum holders continue accumulating ETH. Glassnode data shows that the 30-day Holder Net Position Change, which tracks wallets holding ETH for 155 days or more, has been rising steadily. Because nothing says “I’m confident” like holding onto your coins for months, even when the market’s crashing.

On February 24, long-term holders had accumulated about 9,454 ETH. Since then, that figure has climbed sharply. At press time, the metric has increased to roughly 442,646 ETH, showing continued conviction among long-term investors. That’s a 4,500%+ rise in under two weeks. What’s next, a 10,000% increase? Larry would say, “I’ll believe it when I see it.”

Interestingly, this accumulation trend began around the same time Ethereum entered the short-term rising channel (started developing on February 24), suggesting that these holders may still believe the broader structure remains intact. Or, as Larry would say, “They’re either brave or stupid. Probably both.”

However, this optimism carries risk. Because if you’re not careful, your “optimism” could turn into a “what-have-I-done” moment.

From a technical perspective, Ethereum must now reclaim $2,050, which corresponds to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. A clear 8-hour close above $2,050 could open the path toward $2,180. Because nothing says “market is stable” like a Fibonacci number.

On the downside, the key support sits near $1,910. If Ethereum breaks below this level, it would confirm a breakdown of the rising channel. Such a move could push ETH toward $1,830 (the psychological $1,800 zone). Because if you can’t trust the numbers, what can you trust?

For now, Ethereum’s market sits between two opposing forces. Founder selling and technical weakness are increasing downside pressure, while whale accumulation and long-term holder conviction continue to provide support. Whether ETH holds above the channel – or slips toward the $1,800 zone – may determine the next phase of the market. Because in crypto, nothing is ever certain. Except for the fact that Larry would’ve sold his ETH long ago.

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2026-03-08 17:31