Ethereum’s Breakeven Trap: Inside the Cost-Basis Bubble

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Ethereum is skulking about in a dense patch of its cost basis, price perched near a breakeven line that a sizable slice of holders can barely call a win-on-chain numbers from Glassnode confirm the spectacle.

Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap reveals a thick crowd of ETH that was last bought near today’s price, a telltale sign that many investors are sitting near the edge of profitability and quite keen to pretend it isn’t complicated.

These zones are the market’s version of a busy roundabout: small price moves here can nudge holder behavior more than in the quiet backwaters of deeper liquidity.

Ethereum Cost Basis data points to elevated friction at key price levels

Crucially, the heatmap indicates the densest concentration of Ethereum supply clustered roughly between $2,900 and $3,100. That places the current price squarely inside a major breakeven region for a large share of holders, a situation that invites drama at the slightest nudge.

This band represents the chart’s most significant pocket of historical accumulation, implying many ETH purchasers last added to their stacks within this range.

Consequently, price action here tends to encounter more friction: marginal moves can prompt holders to rethink whether to hold, pare exposure, or add to positions, like a crowd at a bus stop debating which way the city is going.

Above the current level, the heatmap shows a secondary accumulation zone between $3,300 and $3,500.

The area reflects prior consolidation in earlier market phases. ETH has struggled to sustain moves into this region in recent months, consistent with overhead supply from holders near those levels.

Below the primary cluster, historical accumulation thins notably below $2,700, where the heatmap shows fewer ETH holdings.

This suggests that if price were to slip decisively below the current breakeven band, it would wander into an area with less natural cost-basis demand, increasing sensitivity to directional flows.

Ethereum price remains range-bound as moving averages converge

Ethereum was trading around $2,930-$2,950 at the time of writing, still below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which hover near the lower end of the $3,000s.

Since November, ETH has largely wandered in a broad sideways fashion after a sharp retreat from October’s highs-a sort of financial pilgrimage without a destination.

Recent sessions show muted follow-through on both rebounds and pulling back, which feels less like a trend and more like price discovery happening inside a crowded cost-basis zone.

Trading volume has cooled compared with earlier volatility spikes, reinforcing the sense that price discovery is happening through absorption rather than expansion.

Market structure, not sentiment, driving near-term dynamics

While sustained holding within the zone can signal absorption, a decisive move away from it could expose price to faster repricing – like a party that suddenly realizes someone forgot to bring snacks.

Right now, on-chain data shows ETH neither reclaiming higher cost basis bands nor breaking decisively below the cluster.

That positioning suggests market participants are still negotiating value rather than reacting to some grand directional catalyst.

Final Thoughts

  • ETH is trading in a major holder breakeven zone, with on-chain data showing a dense concentration of supply acquired near current prices.
  • Below this range, cost basis data indicates thinner historical support, increasing sensitivity if price moves decisively away from the cluster.

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2026-01-27 22:30