Gemini Takes Aim at Prediction Markets – Will It Win or Fold? Find Out! đź’Ą

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Crypto exchange Gemini is preparing to dip its toes into the rapidly growing prediction markets sector, and frankly, it’s about time they did something interesting.

Regulatory Application and Strategic Ambitions

Ah, Gemini Space Station Inc. (Yes, really. Space Station? Talk about lofty aspirations!) is all set to make its grand entrance into the bustling world of prediction markets, a sector so lively that even the Trump family has decided to throw its hat into the ring. According to a cryptic leak from some very “anonymous” sources (because who doesn’t love a good mystery?), Gemini’s latest plot involves competing with a growing list of financial and crypto firms. Yes, including a Trump-backed venture.

As reported by the good folks at Bloomberg, the plan is to unleash prediction market products “as soon as possible.” Details? Oh, they’re still as secretive as your aunt’s recipe for potato salad. However, Gemini did submit an application in May to get the regulatory go-ahead for something called a designated contract market (DCM). Think of it as a fancy derivative exchange with an overbearing uncle-supervised by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

But hold your horses, folks! The approval is still pending. If they get the green light, though, Gemini will be diving into a pool already occupied by some major players, including Kalshi (who’s already in the CFTC’s good books) and Polymarket, which is still trying to wrangle its way back into the U.S. market. Meanwhile, Robinhood has teamed up with Kalshi to dish out event contracts to the masses, and let’s not forget that even Intercontinental Exchange and CME Group are eyeing the same prize. Exciting, right?

As if that wasn’t enough competition, Trump Media and Technology Group (the folks behind Truth Social, yes the one where your uncle tweets conspiracy theories) is gearing up to launch its own crypto-backed prediction market called “Truth Predict” in cahoots with Crypto.com. Because why not add more to the circus?

Gemini’s grand ambitions are laid out in its September IPO filing, which promised all kinds of thrilling event contracts, from economic to political to sports predictions. However, since the company’s stock has plummeted by a staggering 40% since its debut, it remains to be seen whether the promise is worth the plunge. But fear not! The IPO prospectus has confirmed what we already knew: Gemini is still operating at a loss and has a rather modest share of the U.S. crypto trading scene. But hey, at least they’re trying!

Nevertheless, not everyone is writing off Gemini’s chances. Analysts, those mysterious creatures who have nothing better to do than predict the future, say prediction markets are a hot ticket for growth. A recent note from Needham called them an “attractive” option, while Galaxy Research reported that prediction markets are currently experiencing record-breaking volumes. Who knows, maybe Gemini will turn this ship around after all. Or, maybe they’ll be the Titanic. Time will tell.

FAQ 🧠

  • What is Gemini’s plan for prediction markets? They plan to launch crypto-backed prediction market products, but first, they need a little regulatory love.
  • Who regulates prediction markets in the U.S.? The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the official hall monitor of financial exchanges.
  • Who are Gemini’s main competitors? Kalshi, Polymarket, and Truth Predict (the one from Trump Media-yes, really!) are the big names.
  • Why is Gemini entering this sector now? Analysts are saying prediction markets are booming, and Gemini’s hoping to cash in on the trend. đź’°

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2025-11-06 00:54