Hedera (HBAR) Jumps 14%-So Why Are Whales Quietly Leaving?

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Hedera (HBAR) has rocketed up by more than 14% this week, as it claws its way back from a recent slump. However, let’s not pop the champagne just yet because, despite this brief bounce, HBAR is still down a chunky 9% for the month-now that’s what you call a downtrend, folks!

The plot thickens! With all these mixed signals bouncing around, a burning question arises: Are the whales whispering to each other about a secret crash that only the “smart” traders (and a few retail enthusiasts) are blissfully ignoring?

Smart Money and Retail Stay Bullish Despite Warning Signs

The Smart Money Index (SMI) is galloping upwards since October 26, making higher highs and breaking above its signal line. For those who don’t speak ‘crypto’, this typically means the experienced traders are feeling hopeful about a recovery-or at least convinced that the worst is behind them. After a teeny-tiny pullback, the SMI is still hanging out near 1.08, keeping the short-term outlook cautiously optimistic. For now, at least.

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If the index can hold above 1.08, the bulls will be prancing around with excitement. But if it drops below that, get ready for the mood to shift faster than a chameleon at a paint shop.

Meanwhile, the retail traders are in full-on optimism mode. In fact, they’re a bit more enthusiastic than the “Smart Money” crowd. The Money Flow Index (MFI)-which measures the buying and selling pressure using price and volume-has surged from a lowly 35 to a peppy 69.4 over the last two weeks. That’s a massive leap, signaling fresh inflows and a rise in retail interest. Looks like the little guys are diving in, betting on a nice rebound.

So, smart money and retail traders are still hopeful about the HBAR price. But hold your horses… something smells fishy because the whales are making a hasty exit.

Whales Are Exiting While Smart Money Bets on a Rebound

While the smaller traders and institutional signals are waving their “bullish” flags, the mighty whales are heading for the exit. Data shows that HBAR accounts with 100 million+ tokens have dipped from 41.75% of the total supply to 40.65% since October 21. That’s about a 1.1% drop in less than two weeks-roughly 110 million HBAR tokens fleeing from whale wallets. And, at today’s price, that’s a cool $20.9 million of HBAR that’s no longer in the hands of the big fish. Not exactly a sign of confidence, is it?

Looks like the classic split: smart money and retail traders are betting on the bottom being in, but the whales are quietly making their escape. If the whales are gearing up for a nasty dip, we might start seeing the early signs in the charts-and guess what? We’re already seeing them.

HBAR Price Chart Shows “Hidden” Bearish Divergence or The Crash Catalyst

Take a look at the HBAR price chart: it’s been bouncing around in a tight range between $0.219 and $0.154 since October 11. Seems like buyers and sellers are playing tug-of-war, trying to figure out who’s going to win this battle of wits. Spoiler alert: It’s probably not going to end well.

From October 6 to October 29, the price made a lower high, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI)-which tracks momentum-made a higher high. And folks, that’s called “hidden bearish divergence,” a signal that often means the existing downtrend is about to make a comeback. If the key levels break, get ready for a correction.

Currently, HBAR is holding above $0.189, but if it loses that support, it could slide down to $0.168. If the selling continues (and it’s looking like it will), the next major support level is around $0.154, and below that, we might be looking at a potential tumble to $0.119. Brace yourselves!

A move below $0.168 will confirm that the bears are back in town. If it holds above that, well, we might see a short-term consolidation. But let’s be honest, unless some fresh buying volume shows up, HBAR looks like it’s heading for a deeper pullback. Sorry, bulls, but the whales have already packed their bags!

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2025-10-31 19:24