Ah, while the crypto world was busy throwing confetti in August, our dear XLM decided to take a rather ungracious tumble. Over the past month, it has plummeted a delightful 11%, and in the last 24 hours, it has graciously slipped another 4.2%-a veritable overachiever compared to the market’s modest 2% decline. Bravo! 👏
These persistent dips have left traders scratching their heads, pondering if a recovery is even on the menu. On-chain and technical patterns are waving red flags, suggesting a downtrend unless our bullish friends decide to make a grand entrance. Stellar might just be peering into the abyss of new lows if one particularly gloomy bearish crossover decides to confirm its existence.
Social Dominance Drop: A Dismal Affair
The first sign of impending doom comes from social dominance, that charming little metric that measures how much of the crypto gossip a coin commands compared to its peers. For Stellar, the spotlight has dimmed dramatically-from a dazzling 1.71% on July 13 to a mere 0.51% at the time of writing, a staggering near 70% decline. How positively tragic! 😱
History, that ever-reliable companion, shows that when social dominance takes such a nosedive, it often precedes extended corrections. For instance, in March, a similar collapse was followed by XLM’s price plummeting from $0.35 to $0.25-nearly a 30% drop. How delightful! 🎢
If the Stellar social dominance and price correlation decide to tango once more, a similar drop might just be on the cards. How thrilling! 💃
Moreover, on the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (that’s the Exponential Moving Average for the uninitiated) is poised to cross below the 200 EMA. Oh, the drama! 📉
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The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a rather clever little tool that tracks price trends by giving more weight to recent candles. On shorter charts like the 4-hour, traders are often on the lookout for the 50 EMA to fall below the 200 EMA, which forms a ‘death cross.’ How morbidly poetic! This is seen as bearish, indicating that short-term momentum is fading against the longer trend, often leading to sharper drops if support levels decide to play hide and seek.
If confirmed, this bearish “Death” crossover would be the technical trigger validating what social dominance has so graciously hinted: that Stellar’s momentum is slipping faster than a soap opera star’s marriage. Together, the waning social chatter and looming crossover create a rather dismal setup for a heavy downside scenario. How utterly riveting! 🎭
Clustered XLM Price Supports: A Tenuous Affair
Currently, the XLM price is frolicking around $0.39, just above the fragile support at $0.38. If this line decides to break, the price could swiftly slide to $0.36, and from there, weakness could extend to a rather dismal $0.24. How charming! 😬
That would mark a nearly 40% correction from current levels. The unfortunate reality for Stellar is that the supports under $0.39 are clustered rather closely together. When that happens, a sharp move can sweep through multiple levels in one fell swoop, leaving the XLM price with little to no cushion until it reaches much lower depths. How delightful! 🥴
For any recovery to take place, our bullish friends would need to reclaim the $0.43-$0.45 range. Only then could Stellar hope to revisit the $0.52 high charted earlier. Without this, the downside case reigns supreme, and the bearish crossover, once confirmed, could accelerate losses faster than a speeding bullet. How thrilling! 🎉
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2025-08-25 23:59