Oil Prices Surge as Strait of Hormuz Remains Blocked: Brent Crude Hits $94.57

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<a href="https://jpyeur.com/brent">Brent</a> Crude at $94.57 as Strait of Hormuz Records Near-Zero Traffic for Second Straight Day

Brent crude oil prices jumped over 5% Monday morning, reaching $94.57 a barrel. This increase follows reports that no tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, according to data from Kpler. Shipping company Ambrey advised all vessels to halt any planned trips through the area after receiving a warning from Iran via VHF radio.

Summary

  • WTI crude rose 5.6% to $88.54 per barrel, fully reversing Friday’s 9% drop that had followed Iran’s brief announcement that the strait was completely open.
  • Kpler showed no oil tankers crossing the strait Sunday, while Windward counted at least 13 vessels that turned back Saturday when Iran reimposed restrictions.
  • ADNOC CEO Sultan Al Jaber put the cumulative supply loss at nearly 600 million barrels blocked over approximately 50 days, a figure that does not normalize quickly under any short-term ceasefire.

Brent crude oil prices are currently reflecting a very pessimistic outlook. Concerns include the potential for a major shipping lane to be closed for almost 50 days, a ceasefire agreement ending on Wednesday, uncertainty about talks with Iran, and Iran’s promise of retaliation after the US seized one of its ships. With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at $88.54 a barrel, the global energy market appears to be factoring in a significant supply disruption of 10 to 11 million barrels per day.

According to Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, financial markets are currently being driven more by rumors and opinions than by solid facts. He noted that Monday’s market rebound – a 5% increase after a 9% drop on Friday – wasn’t due to any actual changes in supply, but rather to shifts in diplomatic messaging.

On Monday, maritime security firm Ambrey advised ships to cancel any planned passages through the Strait of Hormuz if they receive warnings from Iranian forces. This guidance essentially tells commercial ships to consider the strait closed until they receive further instructions.

The Physical Market Data Behind the Price

The extremely low number of tankers passing through the strait on Sunday, as reported by Kpler, strongly suggests that disruptions to shipping are still significant, despite any official statements. Windward tracked at least 13 ships that changed course on Saturday after Iran announced the strait was closed following an attack by its Revolutionary Guard on two Indian-flagged vessels trying to pass through.

The limited window of ship movement on Friday showed real demand after weeks of being blocked, and it’s essentially the only success of the ceasefire – a single day of increased activity before Iranian forces resumed attacks. Those involved in the oil market have stated they need a guaranteed, ongoing period of safe passage before they’ll return to normal operations. A single day of transit followed by more attacks isn’t enough to assure them of safety.

ADNOC’s CEO, Sultan Al Jaber, urged a return to normal conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting that nearly 600 million barrels of oil had been blocked over the past 50 days. He explained this amount is enough to fuel the entire world for six days and can’t be quickly fixed through diplomacy.

Why Brent Remains Below Its War Peak

Brent crude oil is currently trading at $94.57, significantly lower than its peak of $114 to $166 in March. Several things have brought the price down from those high levels. In March, the International Energy Agency released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, which covered about four days of global oil use. The US also briefly lifted restrictions on 30 oil tankers connected to Russia, increasing the available supply. Additionally, China’s large strategic oil reserves helped cushion the impact on the world’s biggest oil importer.

The current market suggests expectations of ongoing, but limited, disruptions rather than a total collapse. Positive news from diplomatic efforts tends to lower oil prices, while increased tensions push them toward $100 a barrel – a price point that analysts believe could significantly impact global economic forecasts. Monday’s price of $94.57 falls between these two scenarios, indicating neither a solution to the current issues nor a full-blown crisis.

What the Crude Oil Price Level Means for Crypto

With oil prices at $94.57, crude oil is currently at a level that increases concerns about energy-driven inflation. This makes the Federal Reserve less likely to lower interest rates, which removes a major factor that has been driving institutional demand for Bitcoin through 2026. Essentially, as long as oil stays above $90 per barrel each week, this positive influence on Bitcoin weakens.

Iran’s short-lived practice of charging tankers a dollar per barrel in Bitcoin to pass through the Strait of Hormuz created a positive story for Bitcoin, suggesting it could be used for real-world oil transactions and lessening concerns about broader market risks. However, with the strait now completely closed and no toll system in place, that positive narrative has vanished, significantly impacting the market as of Monday.

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2026-04-20 22:48