Prediction Markets Explode: Geopolitical Bets Drive 2,800% Surge in Activity

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Prediction market activity jumps 2,800% as geopolitical bets dominate

March saw a surge in prediction market participation, reaching an all-time high. This growth was fueled by easier access, positive changes in regulations, and increased public interest in betting on political and global events.

Summary

  • Prediction market transactions crossed 191 million in March, with trading volume rising to about $23.9 billion, reflecting a sharp jump from last year.
  • Geopolitical and macroeconomic events now drive most activity, while crypto-related markets account for a smaller share of overall trading.

A recent report from TRM Labs shows that prediction markets are growing quickly, boosted by features in Google Finance and more widespread coverage of live odds in the news.

Prediction markets are places where people can buy and sell contracts based on how they think future events will turn out. Essentially, they trade on predictions about what will happen in the real world.

TRM Labs notes that these markets are now frequently used to quickly gauge global political and economic happenings. Their increasing popularity is due to easier access, clearer rules, and better connections to common platforms.

So far in March, the number of transactions has surpassed 191 million, a significant jump of over 2,800% compared to March of last year, according to data from Dune Analytics.

In March, trading volume reached approximately $23.9 billion, a significant increase from $1.9 billion the previous year. However, it was still about 12% lower than the record high seen in January.

The number of unique wallets using the platform grew threefold, reaching approximately 840,000 by February 2026. According to TRM, this increase indicates more people are joining, not just current users making bigger transactions.

TRM Labs reports that recent increases in activity are mainly due to global political situations and economic trends, which are now the biggest factors influencing trading volumes on various platforms.

Although discussions about cryptocurrencies were once dominant, they now make up a smaller portion of overall online activity, according to the report.

As of Monday, the most popular markets on Polymarket focused on U.S. politics – specifically, who will be nominated for president in 2028 – and global events, like whether Benjamin Netanyahu will still be Israel’s Prime Minister by the end of the year.

Prediction markets under scrutiny

As this sector has grown, it’s also come under more examination. Companies like Kalshi and Polymarket are dealing with worries about unfair advantages from inside information and whether they’re following state laws related to gambling.

A number of U.S. states are taking legal action, claiming that some contracts for events are actually illegal gambling because they don’t have the proper licenses.

TRM Labs believes how platforms handle new rules and maintain a fair marketplace will determine how much the industry grows in the future.

Polymarket and Kalshi are taking steps to improve trading safety and fairness, but it’s still unclear what the overall rules will be for these types of platforms.

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2026-03-30 09:16