With peace talks between the US and Iran breaking down and tensions increasing, Bitcoin’s price has fallen back from around $74,000, hitting a downward trendline. Now, the question is whether this is just a temporary dip before Bitcoin tries to rise again, or if the price will continue to fall.
$BTC price falls $3,000
Looking at the 4-hour price chart, Bitcoin attempted to break through a long-term downward trendline, but stopped just short of the $74,000 resistance level. Since then, possibly influenced by increased instability in the Middle East, the price has dropped nearly $3,000. It’s now trading below the $71,400 support level, which is now acting as resistance.
Market indicators are shifting rapidly this morning. It’s now unclear if the price will fall further, potentially testing the $69,000 support level, or if it will bounce back and challenge the existing downward trend.
As a crypto investor, I’m watching things closely because the price range is really tightening up. We’ve got a downward trendline from this bear market, and it’s getting closer and closer to the bottom of this bearish pattern. Something’s gotta give – either the price will break out of this pattern, or it’ll continue down – and I expect it to happen within the next week.
SMAs about to tell a new story
Are we starting to see a shift in the trend? While the 200-day and 100-day simple moving averages still point downwards – with the 100-day potentially acting as a barrier if the price of Bitcoin rises – the 50-day SMA is starting to turn upwards, suggesting a possible change in direction. This is often the first indicator of a new trend, and it’s happening now.
It’s still too soon to be certain, but if the price of Bitcoin drops from its current level, the 50-day Simple Moving Average, which is currently trending upwards, could start to decline.
Looking at the daily chart, I’m noticing the Stochastic RSI is starting to turn down from overbought levels, which is actually a positive sign. A lot of the shorter-term Stochastic RSIs are already at their lowest points, and if this daily one can also reset, it’ll give buyers a fresh start and set the stage for a potential breakout. Basically, it could mean a good opportunity is coming up.
0.786 Fibonacci in weekly time frame provides bottom support
Looking at the chart over several weeks and using Fibonacci levels, a notable pattern emerges. If we measure from the lowest point of the eight-month upward trend in 2024 to the highest price ever reached, the 0.786 Fibonacci level aligns precisely with the recent low points in the current downward trend, and also with the highest points from the 2021 bull market. Is this just a random occurrence?
The weekly Stochastic RSI is continuing to rise, which is a significant signal given the long-term timeframe. It’s about to move above the 50 level, marking the halfway point of its potential climb. However, there’s still a considerable distance for the price to travel, meaning buyers need to increase their momentum.
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2026-04-13 12:47