Solana Slumps 15%-Will $83 Trigger a Free-Fall? You Won’t Believe What Comes Next

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Solana Loses Half Its Bid Just as $83 Trapdoor Threatens Free-Fall

Solana (SOL) is currently trading at $84.80. Trading volume has dropped significantly, and several technical indicators suggest a potential price decline. The price is currently testing a key support level, and there’s little evidence of strong buying interest below that point.

Current market indicators suggest that if the price falls below its recent low, it could drop rapidly. This is because data shows a significant level of buying interest is located much higher than the current price, meaning there’s little support below it.

Solana Slides 15% as Bearish Crossovers and Rising Sell Volume Stack Up

Solana’s price has dropped about 15% since reaching a high point on May 11th, pushing it back into a trading range it had previously been attempting to move above. This downward trend is now supported by two technical indicators that are suggesting a negative outlook.

The first buy signal appeared when a short-term moving average crossed below a longer-term one on May 19th. Specifically, the 20-day EMA (which gives more weight to recent prices) dropped below the 50-day EMA. Now, another potential sell signal is developing: the 20-day EMA is heading towards crossing below the 100-day EMA. If this happens, it would create a series of two consecutive bearish signals.

Solana’s price movement is reflected in its trading volume. Since May 16th, selling volume has been steadily increasing, even while the price has been falling. This increase in volume during a price drop suggests that people are actively selling their Solana, rather than simply a lack of buyers. This trend also corresponds with recent reports of large Solana holders selling off their assets.

Technical indicators are looking negative, and trading volume supports this downward trend. Now, we need to see if there’s enough buying interest from cryptocurrency holders to offset the increasing supply.

Buying Pressure Halves as Cost Basis Reveals Empty Floor Below

Based on blockchain data, buying interest appears to be decreasing, coinciding with a recent technical downturn. However, data from Glassnode shows that the net flow of coins into exchanges has become less negative over the last week, suggesting a potential slowdown in selling pressure.

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Solana saw a large number of coins leave exchanges on May 14th, with net outflows reaching 2,640,261 SOL – suggesting people were buying and holding. By May 19th, these outflows had decreased to 1,308,054 SOL. This means the buying activity that helped stabilize the price during the recent drop has decreased by about half in just five days.

As a researcher, I’ve been digging into on-chain data, and one reading stands out. Using Glassnode’s Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap – which essentially maps where Solana coins were initially purchased – I’ve found that almost all of the circulating supply was bought at or above the current price. This is a significant indicator, suggesting strong holder conviction.

The biggest group of SOL holders—around 14 million—bought between $87.10 and $87.81, and that price level is now acting as a barrier to further increases. Looking below the current price, the data shows areas with few buyers and limited supply, suggesting people are selling. Because there isn’t much buying interest to counter the selling, a drop below the recent low price could cause the price to fall quickly.

With fewer people buying and no obvious support level, the future price of Solana will depend on what the price chart itself indicates.

Solana Price Levels That Decide the Next Leg

Solana’s price needs to stay above $83.38 to prevent a significant price decrease. Currently, it’s only about 2% higher than that level, meaning there’s very little room for error before the price could fall sharply.

If the price falls below $83.38 today, it could drop to $81.37, which was the lowest point reached on April 29th. If it falls below that level, it could then move towards a lower support level around $76.70, as seen on the chart.

Solana needs to reach $87.40 to start recovering its strength. It hasn’t been able to get back above this price since May 16th. Breaking through $87.40 would also mean surpassing a significant price level where many investors previously bought Solana.

For Solana to show strong, sustained upward movement, it needs to break past $96.77 (a key technical level) and then $98.39 (its recent high). Currently, these price points are distant and would require a significant increase in buying pressure to reach.

It’s important to note that if the price falls below a key support level, the subsequent drop might be more dramatic than a typical price correction. When the price falls into an area where there aren’t many buyers, it tends to fall quickly, unlike when it retraces into an area where more people are holding the asset. Currently, the $83.38 level is crucial. If it holds, the price could rise to $87.40. However, if it breaks down, a faster drop to $81.37 or even $76.70 is possible.

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2026-05-20 13:38