The MSTR Rhapsody: Bitcoin, Bulls, and a Laughing Ledger

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Strategy Inc, that curious creature called MicroStrategy, has staged a rebound in its stock price since the chill of early February. After plummeting to a local low on February 5, the MSTR stock price has climbed nearly 33% in a few frantic sessions. The maneuver followed a quiet revival in Bitcoin and a renewed parade of well-dressed money into MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin-inspired performance, a scheme championed, as if by a sly patron, by Michael Saylor.

This bounce, as shiny as a polished brass goblet, looks robust on the surface. Yet the orchestra must be heard in full. The question remains: does this rally embody lasting belief in Strategy’s long game with Bitcoin, or is it merely a momentary gust stirred by crypto whimsy?

Bitcoin and Earnings Explain the Bounce – But Also Its Limits

The long arc of Strategy’s price appears to dance to Bitcoin’s tune.

When Bitcoin crowned near 126,000 in October, the world of crypto-linked equities felt the tremor of selling. Strategy followed the echo almost at once. From that October peak, MicroStrategy’s price slunk more than 70% as Bitcoin slid into a stern correction.

Since February 5, Bitcoin has crept up about 11%, from around 63,000 toward 70,000. In that same ribbon of days, Strategy vaulted roughly 33%. A three-to-one chorus, you might say, underscoring how deeply the stock remains tethered to Bitcoin’s mood and how eagerly the market loves a levered bet on the crypto tale.

Earnings, like a stout ally with armor in need of polish, added a second layer of support.

In its Q4 2025 report, Strategy posted revenue of $123 million, up 1.9% year over year. Subscription revenue surged more than 62%, signaling continued vigor in its cloud business. Gross margins hovered near 66%, granting the core software unit a stubborn, cash-friendly backbone.

The massive net loss stemmed largely from non-cash accounting losses on Bitcoin holdings tucked away under Michael Saylor’s long-term playbook. It did not reveal operational frailty. Management insisted upon continued Bitcoin accumulation and a long-horizon posture.

This pairing-the Bitcoin steadying itself and revenue beating expectations-laid the groundwork for the rebound in the MicroStrategy stock price.

But the curtain also reveals the limits. As long as Bitcoin remains the sovereign of valuation, Strategy’s upside will likely ride the crypto cycle. That makes institutional positioning all the more consequential.

Big Money Is Accumulating Quietly, But Bears Still Control Momentum

One of the sharper signals comes from the Chaikin Money Flow, or CMF.

CMF measures whether the giants are buying or selling by blending price and volume. When CMF rises, you can imagine bigger players loading the wagon; when it falls, the wagon is being unloaded.

Between late November and early February, Strategy’s price drifted lower. Yet CMF slowly climbed during that stretch, a bullish divergence in the quiet hours. Retail sentiment waned around MicroStrategy stock, while the powerful financiers were, in their own way, laying groundwork.

After February 5, CMF finally rose above zero for the first time since December. This signaled fresh capital stepping onto the stage. It implies that big money is positioning for a possible Bitcoin revival and sees Strategy, once MicroStrategy, as a leveraged instrument to express that bet.

Yet momentum whispers a more cautious tale.

The Bull-Bear Power indicator gauges who holds the reigns in the short term: buyers or sellers. Despite the 33% rally, this measure sits in negative territory. The sellers still exert control. Accumulation is happening, but the throne has not changed hands. In plain words: institutions are buying, but they are not yet prepared to push prices into the stratosphere. The rally remains vulnerable to a sudden reversal.

That weakness also threads through the trend structure.

MicroStrategy Stock Price Still Trades Below Key Trend Barriers Despite the 33% Rally

The trail of trend verification remains incomplete. Exponential Moving Averages, or EMAs, are the fickle oracles that assign weight to recent whispers in price data. They reveal whether a trend is gaining strength or losing breath.

When price lurks below major EMAs, rallies often falter. When it climbs back above, momentum tends to brighten. Right now, Strategy remains below the 20-day EMA. That level has acted as stubborn resistance throughout the downbeat chapter of MicroStrategy’s price.

In early October, the last time MicroStrategy’s stock broke above its 20-day EMA, the shares rallied another 10% shortly thereafter. That was a sign of genuine trend vigor. The current rebound has not yet earned that signal. Without a clean EMA reclaim, rallies tend to stall, and a small pullback in Bitcoin could rekindle selling in MSTR.

The structure is now a lean silhouette of a few key lines. On the upside, $138 stands as the first major resistance. A daily close above this fortress would hint at improving strength in the MSTR price.

Above that, $150 sits as the critical barrier. This level aligns with a psychological barrier and the key moving average (EMA). A sustained move above $150 would signal real trend repair for the MSTR stock.

If $150 is reclaimed, the next target hovers near $189. Only above that would a broader march toward $300 become plausible. That remains a secondary scenario, not the base case. On the downside, the risk remains explicit.

The $107 to $104 zone marks the February low. This realm has already been tested once. A breakdown below $104 would invalidate the rebound.

If that occurs, the MicroStrategy stock price could coarsen toward $82. A deeper fissure could unveil the $56 region near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.

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2026-02-10 15:41