XRP’s MVRV Dips to Record-Setting Depth-Your Wallet Will Thank You if This Trend Holds

<a href="https://jpyeur.com/xrp-usd/">XRP</a> Flashes Strongest Buy Signal Since 2020 as MVRV Hits Historic Lows

Key Highlights

XRP’s 30-day MVRV ratio has plunged to -47%, its deepest reading since December 2020, signaling extreme capitulation among short-term holders.
Santiment data shows the average active XRP trader is nearly half underwater, with whale activity dropping 57% in the past week even as ETF inflows remain positive.
Historically, MVRV readings this extreme have preceded sharp recoveries, but macro risks including CLARITY Act delays and Bitcoin weakness could extend the drawdown.

As of May 27, 2026, XRP is currently trading around $1.35. Recent activity on the XRP ledger suggests a significant wave of investors selling their holdings, representing one of the largest sell-offs in the token’s history.

Data from Santiment Intelligence shows XRP’s 30-day MVRV ratio has dropped to -47%. This means the typical XRP trader who’s been active in the last month is currently facing losses of almost 50%. This is the lowest this ratio has been since December 2020, before XRP experienced a significant price increase that peaked above $1.50 in April 2021.

Okay, so looking at my XRP holdings, and checking the data, it’s been a rough month. It seems like the average XRP investor who’s been trading recently is down around 47%, and a lot of people are unfortunately selling at what feels like the lowest point. But here’s the thing: historically, when you look at overall returns for XRP, they tend to average out to zero in the long run. That means right now, XRP looks seriously undervalued – like we’re at a really good entry point. The charts are starting to show…

— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) May 26, 2026

According to Brian Quinlivan from Santiment, the 365-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) is currently around -36%, as he mentioned in a livestream on May 22nd.

What MVRV Actually Tells You

As a crypto investor, I keep a close eye on something called MVRV. Basically, it tells me if most people who bought a coin are currently holding a loss or a profit. When MVRV dips really low – meaning a lot of us are ‘underwater’ on our investments – it often signals that the selling is pretty much done. Historically, that’s been a good sign that a price bounce is likely coming. It helps me gauge when the market might be ready to turn around.

As a crypto investor, I’ve been looking at Santiment’s charts, and they’ve identified some key areas to watch. Basically, when the MVRV indicator goes above +20% (they call it the ‘Danger Zone’), historically, we’ve seen price peaks. On the flip side, when it dips deeply into negative territory (‘Opportunity Zone’), that’s usually signaled a good buying opportunity and a price bounce. Right now, XRP is well below that ‘Opportunity’ level, which suggests it might be a good time to consider adding to my position.

The data showed that when the market reaches extremely low points, it often signals that most individual investors have already sold their holdings. This creates a situation where even a little good news can lead to a surprisingly large price increase.

Divergence Between On-Chain Weakness and Institutional Demand

A key market indicator, the MVRV signal, is appearing at a time when market activity is changing noticeably. Data from CoinMarketCap on May 25th shows a significant drop in large transactions – those over $1 million – falling by 57% in just nine trading days, from 157 to 67. This decrease in activity from major investors often suggests a period of lower price swings and a market that’s pausing to wait for a new trend to emerge.

Despite market fluctuations, strong interest from institutions continues to support XRP. XRP spot ETFs saw $12.57 million in net inflows during the week of May 23rd, a better result than Bitcoin, which experienced $1.15 billion in outflows, and Ethereum, with $209 million in outflows. This is the second week in May that XRP ETFs have seen more money coming in than both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Since their launch in November, these XRP ETFs have now accumulated a total of around $1.32 billion in inflows.

There was a significant increase in new XRP wallets being created on the blockchain. Santiment data showed 4,300 new wallets appeared in a 24-hour period around May 21st, marking the fourth-highest daily increase of the year so far. At the same time, the number of daily active XRP addresses rose from 32,000 to 43,520.

Three Scenarios From Here

Scenario 1: Mean-Reversion Rally

Historically, whenever XRP’s MVRV metric has reached this low point on Santiment’s charts – like in late 2020, mid-2022, and late 2023 – it has been followed by a substantial price increase. This happens because those who were likely to sell have already done so, reducing the amount of selling pressure. This means even a small increase in buying can cause the price to rise quickly.

A key event, such as a full Senate vote on the CLARITY Act – which passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14th – could quickly push the price of XRP up to between $2.00 and $2.50. Increased investment into XRP ETFs, combined with a reduction of 800 million XRP held by those ETFs, is also making the supply tighter.

This is the highest-probability outcome based on historical pattern-matching alone.

Scenario 2: Relief Bounce Into Renewed Distribution

XRP’s price increased by 20–40% as a key indicator, MVRV, moved closer to a neutral level. However, the price gains slowed down when it approached the $1.76–$1.80 range. Many investors who bought XRP at lower prices decided to sell and take profits, and a large amount of XRP held by others at that price level created a selling pressure that limited further price increases.

The price could fall back to around $1.80 and then likely continue dropping, settling into a trading range between $1.30 and $1.80. The unclear timeline for the CLARITY Act in the Senate supports this possibility. The bill needs 60 votes to pass, and progress is currently stalled due to an ethics concern regarding officials’ cryptocurrency investments.

Scenario 3: Extended Capitulation

Even with current market readings this low, there’s no guarantee Bitcoin or XRP have hit their lowest point. If Bitcoin’s price falls further, or if the CLARITY Act isn’t passed soon, XRP could experience a significant price drop. This could lead to a situation where even long-term XRP holders are losing money on their investment, with losses potentially exceeding 47%.

XRP’s price might fall to between $1.00 and $1.14 before recovering, following a pattern seen in mid-2022. According to an analyst, a specific chart pattern observed on May 25 suggests a possible price drop to around $1.14.

Key Level to Watch

The key difference lies in comparing the 30-day MVRV (-47%) to the 365-day MVRV (-36%). When the longer-term MVRV is less negative than the short-term one, it indicates that people who’ve held for a longer time are more confident than those who recently bought. Historically, this situation has usually led to either of the first two possible outcomes, rather than the third.

As a crypto investor, I’m keeping a close eye on the MVRV ratio. If the one-year MVRV drops to the level of the one-month MVRV, it would signal a really worrying trend and suggest the long-term outlook for the market is weakening. Basically, it’d mean things are getting structurally less healthy.

XRP is currently trading below its key moving averages, with the 200-day average around $1.45. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is between 41 and 43, suggesting that while the token’s upward momentum is slowing down, it isn’t yet in oversold territory.

2026-05-26 22:31