As a crypto investor, I’m really intrigued by what Plan C is saying about Bitcoin. He believes the recent manufacturing numbers out of the US actually suggest a proper bull run is starting for BTC. He’s pushing back against a lot of the predictions I’ve seen about a big drop down to around $50,000, and he thinks those forecasts are too focused on the four-year halving cycle. It’s a good reminder that real-world economic data might be a bigger driver than just historical patterns.
Recent data from two different sources indicate that the manufacturing sector is growing. The ISM Manufacturing PMI reached 52.7% in April, continuing a four-month trend of expansion, while the S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI was revised upwards to 54.5%, the highest level in nearly two years.
Why PMI Above 50 Matters for Bitcoin
The ISM Manufacturing PMI asks purchasing managers at US factories how things are going. A score over 50 suggests the manufacturing sector is growing, while a score under 50 indicates it’s shrinking. After about 26 months of little change, the index rose above 50 in January 2026, signaling a return to growth.
Chart Plan C suggests a pattern dating back to 2009: Bitcoin’s biggest price increases have historically coincided with rising Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) numbers – specifically, when the PMI goes above 50. Currently, the PMI has been below 50 for an unusually long period, from 2023 into early 2026.
Manufacturing activity increased in April, reaching its highest point since August 2022, according to the Institute for Supply Management. New orders also rose to 54.1%, indicating growing demand as we move into spring.
In my analysis, a statistical study from January 2026 confirmed a clear relationship: the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and returns on Bitcoin (BTC) tend to move together. Essentially, when PMI numbers are up, so is BTC, and vice versa.
Plan C’s Case for the Second Leg Up
The researcher believes traders are too focused on the predictable, four-year halving cycle and aren’t paying attention to what’s happening now. He argues that factors like manufacturing demand, available money, and credit availability are currently more important for determining immediate prices than the usual supply dynamics. He suggests that when Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) numbers show strong growth, it signals a shift of investment back into more risky investments.
Posting his price-and-PMI chart, Plan C laid out the argument bluntly.
Bitcoin has historically always experienced its biggest price increases when the economy is doing well, as measured by the PMI. It’s never had a major bull run while the PMI was consistently below 50, indicating economic contraction. This pattern is repeating itself now, aligning with the business cycle as it always has.
A second factory gauge backs the same direction.
U.S. factory activity strengthened in April, according to S&P Global. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.5, the highest level in nearly two years. Companies reported a surge in new orders – the fastest in four years – and increased production at the quickest rate since April 2022.
S&P Global explained the increase was partly due to companies building up inventories before new tariffs take effect, as well as supply issues caused by the conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, business confidence has climbed to its highest point since February 2025.
Where the Bull Market Thesis Breaks Down
Standard Chartered believes Bitcoin might reach $50,000 again before it starts to recover steadily. They say this is because demand for Bitcoin ETFs is decreasing and fewer large investors are putting money into the market.
Historically, changes in Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) haven’t consistently mirrored Bitcoin’s price movements. For example, in 2014, the PMI increased while Bitcoin’s value decreased, and the opposite happened in 2015. More recently, from 2023 to 2025, even though PMI remained below 50 for almost two years—indicating economic contraction—Bitcoin still experienced substantial growth of around 700%.
Some experts see the index as a sign of what the Federal Reserve might do in the future, instead of something that directly affects Bitcoin. A recent report highlighted that exports have fallen for eleven months in a row and factory jobs decreased for the first time in nine months. Rising costs for materials also reached a ten-month high, making it less likely that interest rates will be lowered soon.
Bitcoin is currently trading in a narrow range between $78,000 and $80,000. An upcoming economic report on June 1st will be a key test of whether the optimistic prediction for a continuing price increase will remain valid.
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2026-05-05 16:16