Bitcoin has risen above $80,000 as investors generally take on more risk, but QCP Capital, a trading firm based in Singapore, advises being careful. They highlight signals from the options market, a shaky economic environment, and growing concerns in Japan – factors that could reduce available money globally before Bitcoin sees further significant gains.
According to a recent market update from QCP posted on X, the market recovery started when Trump temporarily halted “Project Freedom” – the U.S.-led effort to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. The administration said this pause came after making significant progress in talks with Iran. Investors interpreted this as a sign that tensions were easing. As a result, oil prices fell, stock prices rose, and the value of the dollar decreased as traders reduced their concerns about potential disruptions in the Hormuz Strait.
Bitcoin Rides The Risk-On Wave — With Caveats
As an analyst, I’ve been tracking the recent market recovery, and it’s been great to see Bitcoin jump back above $80,000. This happened alongside a really strong month for the S&P 500 – the best we’ve seen since 2020. What’s driving the stock market gains is largely thanks to semiconductor companies, which are performing well due to solid earnings and positive forecasts in the artificial intelligence space, and increased capital expenditure.
From my analysis here at QCP, Bitcoin’s recent price action suggests it’s increasingly behaving like a risk-on asset again. It’s moving more with the stock market and general liquidity, and seems to be responding to things like dollar strength or weakness and overall investor confidence, rather than functioning as a safe haven. While breaking back above $80,000 looks positive, we’re still proceeding with caution.
Although Bitcoin’s price recovered to over $81,000 and increased by more than 6% this week, QCP Capital points out that trading in options markets doesn’t suggest a strong, lasting price increase. Implied volatility for one-month options is around 41%, which is relatively low for recent trading. The fact that options volatility has decreased even as Bitcoin’s price has risen indicates that investors are more focused on protecting themselves from potential losses than betting on further price gains, according to QCP.
Market skew is also indicating a cautious outlook. The 30-day risk reversal is around -5.5 volatility, showing investors are willing to bet on price increases but are still buying protection against potential drops. As QCP Capital puts it, the market feels cautiously optimistic, not overly excited. This difference is important because it suggests the current price increase might be sustainable.
In addition to concerns about the Federal Reserve and Iran, QCP Capital is highlighting Japan as a growing area of worry. The yen is still weak, there’s a renewed possibility of the Japanese government stepping in to influence the currency, and yields on Japanese government bonds are rising quickly. These factors suggest the market anticipates that rising global prices will start to push up inflation in Japan.
As I’m watching USDJPY, I’m particularly focused on the 160 level. If the pair moves back towards that point, I believe the probability of intervention from Japanese authorities will increase significantly. Also, according to QCP, a continued rise in Japan’s long-term interest rates (the JGB term premium) could subtly reduce overall global liquidity. This isn’t just a Tokyo issue; it could have broader negative effects on risk assets worldwide.
QCP believes the recent gains are noticeable, but they see April’s increase as a temporary improvement driven by earnings and increased cash flow, happening within a still-uncertain economic environment – not a fundamental change in the market. Bitcoin could continue to rise if investments through ETFs remain strong, the dollar weakens, and the stock market performs well. However, the rally is still vulnerable to factors like real interest rates, oil prices, bond yields, and potential currency market interventions.
Currently, a lot of trading activity is focused between $80,000 and $85,000. If the price clearly moves above $82,000–$83,000, that’s a key signal. Until then, QCP Capital suggests that any quick price increases in oil, USDJPY, or global yields should likely be seen as temporary and potentially reversed.
This is a crucial moment for Bitcoin. Over the next few days, we’ll see if the recent gains in April signal a lasting upward trend, or if they were just a temporary bounce that won’t last.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $81,000, staying above the important $80,000 mark while investors wait for the next major economic event that could move the market.
Cover image from Grok, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
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2026-05-06 14:30