XRP’s price is showing a concerning pattern that could lead to a 12% decrease, potentially dropping below $1. However, there’s been a significant increase – over 300% – in the amount of XRP leaving exchanges since mid-May. Additionally, trading activity has decreased, and fewer traders are using leverage to bet on price increases.
Strong buying activity might keep XRP’s price within its current range for the time being. However, if the price falls below a key support level, it could signal a further price decrease.
Bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern Risks an 18% Drop
Looking at XRP’s price movement over the past 12 hours, a concerning pattern has emerged called a ‘head and shoulders’ formation. This pattern suggests a potential price decline. The left side of the pattern formed in early March, with the highest point, or ‘head,’ reached in mid-March. The pattern finished forming in mid-May with a ‘right shoulder’ that closely resembled the left one.
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XRP is currently trading around $1.18 and facing downward pressure from a bearish pattern. After falling to $1.30 on May 23rd, the price quickly recovered somewhat. However, the risk of further decline remains until XRP can break above key resistance levels, specifically surpassing the highs that formed the ‘head’ and ‘right shoulder’ of the pattern.
Based on a recent technical pattern, XRP’s price could potentially fall around 18%. However, data from the XRP network and the derivatives market suggest this decline isn’t certain.
Buying Pressure Quadruples as Exchange Outflows Surge 300%
Despite a negative trend appearing on XRP’s price chart, data suggests strong buying pressure. According to Glassnode, XRP has been steadily leaving cryptocurrency exchanges since mid-May, indicating increasing investor confidence.
On May 15th, the system showed a net outflow of 7,144,942 XRP. Over the next nine days, this increased dramatically to 29,372,431 XRP – a rise of more than 300%.
When more cryptocurrency is moved out of exchanges than is deposited, it suggests people are buying and holding it privately. This decreases the amount available for quick selling, which can help prevent prices from falling sharply. The consistent nature of these movements indicates a planned and ongoing effort to accumulate these coins.
If continued buying keeps the price of XRP above $1 is the key question. If buyers consistently purchase XRP, they could offset the selling pressure and create a balanced market. Data from the derivatives market supports this idea, suggesting a potential shift in the current downward trend.
Long Leverage Drains as XRP Price Faces Range-Bound Stalemate
Recent derivatives data supports the idea that XRP’s price will continue to fluctuate within a limited range. According to Santiment, the amount of XRP in open derivatives contracts (open interest) decreased from $1 billion to $914.19 million since May 15th. Additionally, the funding rates for those betting on a price increase (long positions) have also fallen, dropping from 0.008% to 0.003%.
The significant decrease in long funding rates – down 62% – lowers the chance of a series of forced liquidations. With less borrowing happening, there’s less potential for a large price drop. This, along with recent buying activity, makes the idea of a major price decline less likely.
As of May 25th, I’m observing XRP trading around $1.35, and the price charts still suggest a downward trend. If the price falls below $1.34 and then $1.28, it could signal further declines. A break below $1.21 and $1.18 would indicate even more significant weakness in the price.
If the price of XRP stays below $1.18 for 12 hours, it could drop to $1.01, and potentially even $0.96. This would mean the price falls below $1 and confirms a bearish ‘head and shoulders’ pattern. The $1.01 level, based on Fibonacci analysis, is a significant price target for sellers.
If the price rises above $1.55, it suggests the downward trend might be ending and could lead to a rise back to $1.60. A sustained close above $1.60 over 12 hours would mean the predicted ‘head and shoulders’ pattern is no longer valid.
The price of XRP is currently at a critical point, with technical charts suggesting a potential downturn while on-chain data indicates positive momentum. This creates a period of uncertainty, with the price likely to stay within a limited range for now. For the price to fall consistently below $1, buying activity would need to decrease and traders using borrowed funds (leverage) would likely need to increase their short positions.
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2026-05-25 20:06