Trump’s Iran Deal Push: 39% Odds by May 31, Abraham Accords Expansion Looms

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Memorial Day Lull Masks Iran Deal Signals as Trump Mandates Abraham Accords Push

According to Polymarket, there’s currently a 39% chance the U.S. will announce a new agreement with Iran by May 31st. This prediction comes despite limited market reaction on Wall Street, likely due to the Memorial Day holiday, even as President Trump pursues significant diplomatic efforts.

On Monday, Trump publicly stated that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey, and Jordan must sign the Abraham Accords before any final agreement with Iran can be reached. This expands the range of countries involved in the discussions.

Polymarket Odds Frame the Diplomatic Window

The 39% chance predicted on the Polymarket contract for a US-Iran agreement shows that traders are being careful and aren’t strongly predicting it will happen.

There’s only an 11% chance Iran will agree to give up its highly enriched uranium, suggesting serious concerns about this key part of the agreement.

Traditional finance markets, closed for Memorial Day, have not yet priced the diplomatic signals.

Here’s what’s happening this week:

* Today: We anticipate details about a potential agreement between the US and Iran.
* Monday: US markets will be closed for Memorial Day.
* Tuesday: The May Consumer Confidence index will be released.
* Thursday: Several key economic reports come out, including inflation data for April (PCE), first-quarter GDP for 2024, and new home sales for April.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) May 24, 2026

As an analyst, I’ve been watching the crypto markets closely over the holiday weekend, and despite the recent news cycle, we haven’t seen any dramatic price swings. This means the interesting relationship between Bitcoin and oil prices – where they sometimes move in opposite directions – is still holding true.

According to analyst Kyle Doops, Donald Trump is sending mixed signals about the Middle East – suggesting both broader normalization of relations between countries and possible breakthroughs with Iran. Investors are now trying to determine if this represents a significant, lasting shift in the region’s politics, or just a brief period of negotiation, similar to those in the past.

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Draft Framework Stages Uranium Disposal Against Sanctions Relief

Reports indicate that Iran’s supreme leader has approved the broad template of a draft deal.

Iran has tentatively agreed to get rid of its highly enriched uranium if the United States lifts its economic sanctions. Vice President Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner participated in the negotiations that led to this understanding.

Developing news: The U.S. reportedly believes Iran’s supreme leader has given initial approval to a possible agreement. Under the proposed deal, Iran would be willing to get rid of its highly enriched uranium in return for the U.S. lifting economic sanctions. This is still a draft and needs further development.

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) May 24, 2026

According to a high-ranking US official, any easing of sanctions will happen gradually, and there’s no set schedule or specific amount of money Iran has asked for so far.

Basically, what I’m hearing from sources is that any big price drops in oil, and therefore in crypto due to those oil market shocks, are directly linked to whether or not Iran actually follows through on nuclear deal concessions. It’s a ‘no action, no reaction’ situation – if Iran doesn’t deliver on their promises, we likely won’t see a significant sell-off triggered by oil prices. They’re saying it’s a pretty direct connection.

American officials are seeking to ensure the Strait of Hormuz remains open to all ships without fees or restrictions, working together with countries in the Gulf region.

This action specifically counters Iran’s earlier attempt to collect tolls on Bitcoin transactions, a policy they implemented during the conflict.

Abraham Accords Expansion Pushed as Diplomatic Lever

On Monday, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social suggesting that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain should all be required to join the Abraham Accords, alongside the United Arab Emirates, which is already part of the agreement.

He floated the possibility that Iran itself could later join.

President Trump has announced that any country participating in negotiations with Iran should also commit to the Abraham Accords. He believes this will help bring lasting peace to the Middle East, and reports that talks with Iran are going well.

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 25, 2026

As a researcher following the situation, I’ve learned that Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly stated he and former President Trump worked together on an understanding regarding the Strait of Hormuz and overall strategy concerning Iran.

Netanyahu reiterated that any deal must remove Iran’s enriched material from its territory.

Saudi Arabia hasn’t publicly indicated any plans to officially recognize Israel, and Iran has denied reports that it will transfer its uranium reserves.

These inconsistencies show the current system is still developing and not fully established, even though concerns about major disruptions to Bitcoin trading are decreasing.

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2026-05-25 19:32